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Li Auto Q1 earnings preview: Shifting to higher gear

With sales near the low end of guidance, Li Auto's performance in the first quarter is expected to be somewhat mixed, but the outlook for delivery in the second quarter will be robust, according to Edison Yu's team.  |  Li Auto US | Li Auto HK

Li Auto Q1 earnings preview: Shifting to higher gear-CnEVPost

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) will report its unaudited financial results for the first quarter on Wednesday, May 10, before the US markets open. As usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

Li Auto continues to be the best-performing Chinese electric vehicle stock this year, which is well deserved, though it is expected to have a somewhat mixed quarter as sales approached the lower end of the original outlook, Yu's team said in a research note sent to investors today.

The automaker's management team took advantage of strong initial orders from customers in the premium SUV segment to quickly increase deliveries of new models, the team noted.

Yu's team expects a robust delivery outlook for Li Auto in the second quarter, supported by wide availability of the Li L7 and lower-priced versions of the Li L7 and Li L8.

"Positioning-wise, Li Auto remains the clear favorite in the group and likely stays there unless evidence of softening demand emerges later in the year," the team wrote.

First-quarter earnings preview

Yu's team expects Li Auto to report revenue of RMB 17.7 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a gross margin of 20.7 percent and adjusted earnings per share of 0.40.

The team's model assumes an increase in operating expenses relative to the fourth quarter.

This compares to the current analyst consensus estimates of RMB 18.9 billion, 20.5 percent and 0.49, respectively, in a Bloomberg survey.

Yu's team expects Li Auto's vehicle margin to increase by just 50 basis points sequentially, as average selling prices come under some pressure.

Li Auto delivered a record 52,584 vehicles in the first quarter, near the lower end of its previously provided guidance range of 52,000 to 55,000 vehicles.

Its revenue guidance for the first quarter was RMB 17.45 billion to RMB 18.45 billion, implying year-on-year growth of 82.5 percent to 93 percent.

Li Auto Q1 earnings preview: Shifting to higher gear-CnEVPost

Gearing up for big second quarter

For second-quarter delivery guidance, Yu's team expects Li Auto's management to target around 75,000 units, supported by deliveries of the Li L7 throughout the quarter and wide availability of the cheaper Air versions of the Li L7 and Li L8.

Li Auto launched the Li L7, its first five-seat SUV, on February 8.

The Li L7 is the least expensive in its product array, with Pro as well as Max versions starting at RMB 339,800 and 379,800 respectively. The Li L7 is available in a lower-priced Air version, starting at RMB 319,800.

Deliveries of the Li L7 Pro and the Li L7 Max began on March 11, and deliveries of the Li L7Air began in late April.

Li Auto is also offering an Air version of the Li L8, with a starting price of RMB 339,800. The Li L8 was previously available in Pro and Max versions with starting prices of RMB 359,800 and RMB 399,800, respectively.

Li Auto's other model, the flagship Li L9, is currently available only in the Max version, with a starting price of RMB 459,800.

Compared to NIO (NYSE: NIO), Li Auto has launched its latest model very efficiently, capturing the initial wave of demand, which is very important in a highly competitive market driven increasingly by product cycles, Yu's team said.

In terms of gross margin, the team expects improvement on a sequential basis as production scales up and battery input costs fall.

Li Auto CFO is conservatively aiming for a gross margin of above 20 percent, given battery costs and a volatile macro backdrop, Yu's team noted, adding that they see 22 percent-23 percent as more realistic, with further upside dependent on battery input costs and average selling prices.

The real test for the company will come later this year, when it will struggle to maintain demand momentum with its three relatively large EREV SUVs in the face of increased competition, the team said.

Some cannibalization will naturally occur among Li Auto's models, but that will likely be offset by share gains from legacy foreign brands, Yu's team said.

The Li L9 sales have already dropped from 10,582 units in December to 5,831 units in March. Since September, foreign brands have lost about 7 percentage points of market share in the premium SUV segment, the team said.

The slow recovery in Chinese auto sales in recent months is something Yu's team attributes to customers prioritizing spending elsewhere after the Covid reopening and recognizing that car prices could fall further, and therefore not rushing to buy.

China's car sales have been slow to recover in recent months, and Yu's team attributes that to customers prioritizing spending elsewhere after the Covid reopening and recognizing that car prices could fall further and therefore not rushing to buy.

In terms of positioning, Li Auto remains the most popular of the Chinese EV startups and is likely to stay there unless there are signs of softening demand or a decline in execution, the team said.

Li Auto CEO predicts China NEV penetration to exceed 80% by Dec 2025

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China Deals Electric eMobility eV Fund Raising Industry News Smart Tianqi Lithium

Chinese Lithium giant Tianqi reportedly mulling stake in Mercedes-Geely JV Smart

Smart delivered 4,390 vehicles in China in April, down 25.73 percent from 5,911 units in March.

(A Smart #1 on display at the Shanghai auto show in April 2023. Image credit: CnEVPost)

Chinese lithium giant Tianqi Lithium is considering buying a minority stake in Smart Automobile, a joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and Holding Group, as part of the latter's latest round of private funding, Bloomberg said today, citing people familiar with the matter.

Tianqi is in advanced talks to invest $100 million to $200 million in Smart in a deal that could value Smart at several billion dollars, people familiar with the matter said, adding that an agreement could be reached as soon as the next few weeks.

Shenzhen-listed Tianqi, one of China's largest lithium producers, raised about HK$13 billion in a Hong Kong IPO on July 13, 2022.

Mercedes first launched Smart in Germany in 1998 and brought the brand to the US a decade later, with the original two-seat model aimed at urban buyers with crowded parking spaces, the Bloomberg report noted.

Geely and Mercedes-Benz officially announced a 5.4 billion yuan ($783 million) Smart joint venture in Hangzhou Bay, Ningbo, in early 2020.

As part of the agreement, Mercedes-Benz designers will design the Smart cars and Geely will engineer them.

Smart has been considering raising capital as part of its effort to revive the compact car as an all-electric brand. The company was initially aiming to raise between $500 million and $1 billion in fresh funds, according to a Bloomberg report last year.

Smart delivered 4,390 vehicles in China in April, down 25.73 percent from 5,911 units in March, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

The brand currently has only one model on sale in China, the Smart #1, which went on sale in China on April 25, 2022, with deliveries starting on September 24.

The model was designed by Mercedes-Benz, with the Smart R&D team leading the engineering development, and is based on Geely's SEA (Sustainable Experience Architecture) architecture.

On April 17, Smart unveiled its new Smart #3, its second product since its electrification transition, on the eve of the Shanghai auto show.

($1 = RMB 6.8964)

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China Electric eMobility eV Nio NIO Germany Nio House

NIO to open new NIO House in Germany on Jun 1

The new NIO House will be located in Düsseldorf and is set to become NIO's third such facility in Germany.  |  NIO US | NIO HK | NIO SG

NIO to open new NIO House in Germany on Jun 1-CnEVPost

(Image credit: NIO)

NIO (NYSE: NIO) will open a new NIO House in Germany next month, as the Chinese electric vehicle company ramps up its efforts in Europe.

NIO's NIO House in Düsseldorf will open on June 1 local time, according to an article posted yesterday on the company's European version of its mobile app.

Düsseldorf, known for its elegant shopping streets, is also an important business location, especially in the fashion, advertising and telecommunications sectors, according to the article, which did not reveal the exact address of the NIO House.

The new NIO House will be the third flagship showroom of NIO in Germany.

On December 16, 2022, NIO opened its first NIO House in Germany, located on Kurfurstendamm in Berlin.

On March 30 of this year, NIO opened its second NIO House in Germany, located in the heart of Groβe Eschenheimer StraBe in Frankfurt.

NIO co-founder and president Qin Lihong was on site for the Frankfurt NIO House opening ceremony.

NIO House is the flagship showroom of NIO, which also includes the smaller NIO Space in China.

The NIO House is much more than just a space to display and sell vehicles, it is a space for NIO to offer a quality lifestyle to car owners.

NIO's goal is to transfer its entire suite of services in China to overseas markets, including the NIO House and its signature battery swap service.

NIO introduced the ET7, EL7 and ET5 to European consumers at the NIO Berlin launch event last October 7. The EL7 is known as the ES7 in China.

ET7 deliveries in Europe started last October and EL7 deliveries began at the end of January. ET5 deliveries in Germany started on March 31.

NIO opens new NIO House in Frankfurt, its 2nd in Germany

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