Author: Phate Zhang/CnEVPost

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China Electric eMobility eV Milestones Nio

NIO sees cumulative user mileage exceed 10 billion km

This equates to a reduction of 1.07 million tons of carbon emissions, as well as saving customers about RMB 7 billion in energy costs.  |  NIO US | NIO HK | NIO SG

NIO sees cumulative user mileage exceed 10 billion km-CnEVPost

(Image credit: NIO)

NIO (NYSE: NIO) saw its cumulative user miles exceed 10 billion kilometers on April 25, marking a new milestone in the company's history.

NIO announced the milestone today on its mobile app, saying its total number of users to date exceeds 320,000.

NIO delivered 10,378 vehicles in March, bringing cumulative deliveries to 320,597 as of March 31, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

"Reaching this landmark is a proud moment that confirms NIO is a trusted and proven solution for our loyal users. Our compelling range of power solutions, such as our battery swap stations, offers the freedom to travel freely, knowing a robust power solution is never far away," said William Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO.

The company -- all of whose vehicles are zero-emission battery electric vehicles -- said the 10-billion-kilometer mileage represents a reduction of 1.07 million tons of carbon emissions and a savings of about RMB 7 billion ($1 billion) in energy costs for users.

To date, NIO user footprints have covered over 370 cities worldwide. More than 11,000 of them have driven more than 100,000 kilometers, with the longest one reaching nearly 450,000 kilometers.

NIO sees cumulative user mileage exceed 10 billion km-CnEVPost

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

Users have driven more than 821 million kilometers with NIO's assisted driving system, with a cumulative usage time of about 10.76 million hours.

The total mileage of NIO's NOP (Navigate on Pilot) system reached 310 million kilometers, and the total mileage of NOP Plus reached 2,730 kilometers.

As of April 25, NIO has provided more than 21 million battery swap services, and the percentage of power provided by battery swap stations exceeds 60 percent, according to the company.

NIO's battery swap stations provided a peak of 62,356 battery swap services in a single day, equivalent to one NIO vehicle receiving a fully charged battery from these stations every 0.7 seconds, it said.

NIO sees cumulative user mileage exceed 10 billion km-CnEVPost

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

As of April 25, NIO had 1,369 battery swap stations in China, 362 of which are located along highways.

It also has 2,512 charging stations in China, offering 14,903 charging piles, and its charging map has access to 690,000 third-party charging piles.

The company will add 1,000 battery swap stations in China this year, according to its previously announced plans.

In Europe, NIO plans to add up to 70 battery swap stations this year, according to a press release today.

During the upcoming Labor Day holiday, all NIO owners will have unlimited free access to battery swap stations located along highways, it announced yesterday.

This year's Labor Day holiday in China runs from April 29 to May 3. NIO owners will have free access to these battery swap stations from April 28 to May 4, although vehicles used for operational purposes are excluded.

($1 = RMB 6.9239)

NIO launches new ET7, unveils new ES6 at Shanghai auto show

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China CPCA CPCA Estimates Electric eMobility eV EV Data Expectations Industry News Monthly Data

CPCA expects China Apr NEV retail sales to fall 8.4% from Mar to about 500,000 units

April passenger vehicle sales in China are expected to be around 1.57 million units, down 1.3 percent from March, the CPCA said.

CPCA expects China Apr NEV retail sales to fall 8.4% from Mar to about 500,000 units-CnEVPost

China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales rose significantly this month from a year ago, though they were down from March.

In April, retail sales of NEVs in China are expected to be around 500,000 units, up 77 percent from a year earlier but down 8.4 percent from March, according to estimates released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

Survey shows that car companies, which contribute about 80 percent of passenger car sales, are targeting slightly lower retail sales in April than in March, the CPCA said.

According to preliminary projections, China's passenger vehicle sales in April were about 1.57 million units, up 49.8 percent from a year earlier but down 1.3 percent from March, the CPCA said.

That means the penetration of NEVs at retail in April would be 31.8 percent.

Last April, China's auto industry suffered disruption due to the Covid lockdown in Shanghai, with 1.04 million units of all passenger vehicles sold that month, including just 280,000 NEVs.

In the first quarter of this year, China's NEV sales continued to recover, with 545,739 units sold in March, according to the CPCA's final figures released last week. This is slightly higher than the 543,000 units announced by the CPCA on April 11.

In April, the price war in China's auto industry gradually receded and consumers returned to rational consumption, easing the wait-and-see sentiment, the CPCA said in the report today.

The average daily retail sales of major automakers in the first three weeks were 31,500, 36,700 and 54,800, up 8 percent, 23 percent and 26 percent, respectively, from the same period in March, the CPCA said.

But in the fourth week, the average daily retail sales of car companies are expected to fall 14 percent from the fourth week of March, considering that automaker sales usually have an upward pulse at the end of the quarter, according to the CPCA.

With a large number of local government stimulus policies expiring at the end of March and fewer policy incentives in April, no strong stimulus policies are expected to provide support in the short term, the CPCA said.

China's Mar passenger NEV retail up 23.6% MoM to 543,000, CPCA data show

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China Deliveries Electric eMobility eV Milestones Zeekr

Zeekr reaches 100,000 cumulative deliveries

This means Zeekr has delivered 6,818 vehicles so far this month, considering it had 93,182 cumulative deliveries through the end of March.

(Image credit: Zeekr)

Zeekr, 's premium electric vehicle (EV) brand, saw its 100,000th vehicle delivered, marking a milestone in its history.

Zeekr's 100,000th vehicle was officially delivered today in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, the EV maker announced on Weibo.

The vehicle, a Zeekr 009 MPV, was delivered to a Zeekr 001 owner, according to the company.

(Zeekr 009. Image credit: CnEVPost)

That means Zeekr has delivered 6,818 vehicles so far this month, considering it had 93,182 cumulative deliveries through the end of March.

Zeekr delivered 6,663 vehicles in March, up 271.20 percent year-on-year and up 22.14 percent from February, according to data it released earlier this month.

Zeekr was officially launched as a standalone company in March 2021, with its first model, the Zeekr 001, launched on April 15, 2021, and deliveries beginning in October 2021.

(Zeekr 001. Image credit: CnEVPost)

On November 1, 2022, Zeekr's second model, the Zeekr 009 MPV, was launched, and its deliveries began on January 15.

On April 12, Zeekr launched its third model, the Zeekr X, which it hopes will become the benchmark for luxury compact cars.

The Zeekr X is already taking reservations and deliveries will begin in June, with the model aiming to deliver 40,000 units this year.

(Zeekr X. Image credit: CnEVPost)

On April 20, Zeekr saw its 100,000th vehicle roll off the line, a ME version Zeekr 009 MPV powered by 's Qilin Battery and built at Zeekr's plant in Ningbo, Zhejiang province.

The first deliveries of the ME version of the Zeekr 009 began on April 17, marking the global debut of the Qilin Battery in production vehicles.

The Zeekr 009 ME version is equipped with a battery pack with a capacity of 140 kWh, providing a CLTC range of 822 km, the highest among pure electric MPVs.

Zeekr releases Europe strategy, 2 models to debut in Sweden and Netherlands in Q4

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China Deliveries Electric eMobility eV EV Data Insurance Registrations Li Auto Neta Nio Tesla Weekly Data XPeng

Insurance registrations for week ending Apr 23: Tesla 10,300, Li Auto 7,200, NIO 2,000

NIO sold 2,000 units last week, up from 700 the week before and 1,316 in the first week of April.

(NASDAQ: LI) maintained strong sales last week, and NIO (NYSE: NIO) saw a significant rebound, the latest data show.

With 7,200 units sold in the week ending April 23, Li Auto far outpaced other new car-making brands, the automaker said today on Weibo.

With deliveries of the Air versions of the Li L8 and Li L7, Li Auto's weekly sales hit another record high, it said.

Li Auto didn't specify what statistic that sales figure was based on, though apparently, it was insurance registrations. Previously, we had access to those numbers every Tuesday, and Li Auto's practice was to share some of them on Wednesdays.

The main third-party agencies and Weibo bloggers that provide data on auto insurance registrations in China stopped sharing the data this month, but Li Auto continues to share some of it.

This is the first time Li Auto has shared those numbers on a Tuesday, though they weren't taken down to single digits.

(NASDAQ: TSLA) sold 10,300 units last week, according to the table shared by Li Auto. That was down from 12,500 units the week before and up from 6,973 units in the first week of April.

NIO sold 2,000 units last week, up from 700 the week before and 1,316 in the first week of April.

(NYSE: XPEV) sold 1,900 units last week, up from 1,300 units and 904 units in the previous two weeks.

sold 2,100 units last week, up from 1,600 units the previous week and 1,476 units in the first week of April.

Among luxury brands, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi had the highest sales last week with 15,800, 15,600 and 14,800 respectively, according to data shared by Li Auto.

Insurance registrations for week ending Apr 16: Tesla 12,500, Li Auto 6,300, NIO 700

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China Dual Credit Electric eMobility eV Industry News Policy

China to introduce credit pool for NEV dual credit system that is expected to facilitate credit trading

Automakers can voluntarily apply for storage of positive credits when the supply exceeds demand, and release credits when the supply is less than demand.

China to introduce credit pool for NEV dual credit system that is expected to facilitate credit trading-CnEVPost

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

China will introduce a new credits trading system for the dual-credit mechanism in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, which is expected to facilitate credits trading between automakers.

The country has launched the second revision of its dual-credit mechanism, which will implement a credits pool management system and explore mechanisms to interact with the carbon trading market, the Shanghai Securities News said in a report today.

The 2023 annual credits report press conference was held today in Beijing, where China's industry regulators released the information, according to the report.

Under the credit pool system, automakers can voluntarily apply for storage of positive credits for NEVs when the supply exceeds demand.

The storage of positive credits collected into the pool is valid for five years. The previous carryover ratio requirement will be canceled, i.e. there will no longer be a discount for credits carried over to the next year.

When the supply of credits is less than the demand, automakers can release the stored positive credits to regulate the supply and demand in the credits market.

The trigger condition for the pool to collect and release credits is determined by the ratio of supply to demand, which refers to the ratio of positive NEV credits available for trading in the current year to the negative credits to be offset by external trading.

The Shanghai Securities News report provided no further information on this new mechanism.

China released the dual-credit policy in 2017, whose full name is "Parallel Management Measures for Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits". The policy has been in effect since April 1, 2018.

Automakers that fail to meet the fuel consumption control requirements can offset the negative credits from excessive fuel consumption by generating their own NEV credits, or by purchasing credits from other companies.

If a car company is unable to bring negative credits to zero, then they will need to submit a product adjustment plan to the MIIT and set a deadline for compliance.

Until their negative credits are zeroed out, products with substandard fuel consumption cannot be sold to the public.

The policy is seen as one of the keys to promoting the rapid growth of China's NEV industry, allowing the country to reach its 2025 NEV penetration target of more than 25 percent ahead of schedule.

For the full year 2022, China's retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 5.67 million units, up 90 percent year-on-year, contributing 27.6 percent of all passenger vehicle sales, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

China's 'dual credit' policy, what you need to know

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charging China Electric eMobility eV Tesla

Tesla opens its Supercharger network in China to other brands of EVs on pilot basis

Tesla is initially opening 10 Supercharger stations in the Chinese mainland for 37 non-Tesla models.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

Tesla announced today that it is opening its Supercharger network in the Chinese mainland on a pilot basis to other brands of electric vehicles (EVs), following its practice in more than 10 other markets.

The EV maker is initially opening 10 Supercharger stations for 37 non-Tesla models, according to an announcement it posted on WeChat.

Notably, the pilot is currently limited to Beijing and Shanghai, with each city offering five Supercharger stations to participate in the pilot.

The 37 non-Tesla models include the NIO ES6, NIO EC6, P7, Li ONE, 001, BYD Han EV, BYD Tang EV, and Polestar 2.

In addition to the Supercharger stations, Tesla has opened 120 destination charging stations on a pilot basis, covering 25 provinces and cities in the Chinese mainland.

To date, Tesla has more than 1,600 Supercharger stations in the Chinese mainland, offering more than 10,000 Superchargers, according to the announcement.

It also has more than 700 destination charging stations in the Chinese mainland, offering more than 2,000 charging piles.

At the end of 2021, Tesla opened its charging network to non-Tesla vehicles on a pilot basis in Europe, and the service is now available to owners in more than 10 countries and regions worldwide, the company said.

Now, owners of non-Tesla-branded EVs in the Chinese mainland can also enjoy an efficient, convenient and dense Tesla charging network, it said.

Tesla hopes its open and innovative business logic will bring together more industry partners to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, it added.

Tesla prices: Here's how Model 3 and Model Y compare in China vs other markets

First 37 non-Tesla models that can use Tesla Superchargers in Chinese mainland

BrandModel
AiwaysU5
BMWi3, iX, iX3
PorscheTaycan
Mercedes-BenzEQC
BYDHan EV, Tang EV
Great Wall OraGood Cat
Dongfeng AeolusE70
Dongfeng NissanSylphy
Ford MustangMach-E
HiPhiHiPhi X
GAC AionLX
GAC ToyotaC-HR EV
Hozon U
Emgrand Gse, Geometry A, Geometry C
ZeekrZeekr 001
PolestarPolestar 2
Jaguar Land RoverI-Pace, Range Rover PHEV
SeresSF5
Li AutoLi ONE
LeapmotorC11
AITOM5
SAICMarvel R
FAW VolkswagenID.4 Crozz
WM MotorEX5
NIOEC6, ES6
VolvoXC40
XPengP7
FAW-Audie-tron
FAW ToyotaIZOA E
FAW HongqiE-HS9

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China Earnings Electric eMobility eV Tesla

Tesla Q1 revenue from China up 6.86% from Q4 to $4.89 billion

In the first quarter, China contributed 20.97 percent of Tesla's revenue, up from 18.82 percent in the fourth quarter but down from 24.79 percent in the same quarter last year.  |  TSLA.US

Tesla Q1 revenue from China up 6.86% from Q4 to $4.89 billion-CnEVPost

Tesla's revenue from China continued to grow in the first quarter, although its global revenue declined in the quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

In the first quarter, Tesla's revenue from China was $4.891 billion, up 5.18 percent from a year ago and up 6.86 percent from the fourth quarter of last year, according to a 10-Q filing it made with the US Securities and Exchange Commission today.

Tesla Q1 revenue from China up 6.86% from Q4 to $4.89 billion-CnEVPost

The US electric vehicle (EV) maker reported total revenue of $23.3 billion in the global market in the first quarter, up 24.38 percent year-on-year, but down 4.07 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.

This means that in the first quarter, the Chinese market contributed 20.97 percent of Tesla's revenue, up from 18.82 percent in the fourth quarter and down from 24.79 percent in the same period last year.

The US market contributed $11.2 billion, or 48 percent, to Tesla's total revenue in the first quarter.

International markets other than China contributed $7.2 billion, or 31 percent, of Tesla's total revenue in the first quarter.

Tesla Q1 revenue from China up 6.86% from Q4 to $4.89 billion-CnEVPost

Tesla announced on April 2 that it delivered 422,875 units worldwide in the first quarter, up 36.39 percent year-on-year and up 4.34 percent from the fourth quarter.

The deliveries beat Wall Street analysts' expectations of 421,200 units, with deliveries of Tesla's cheaper Model 3 with the Model Y exceeding expectations.

Tesla delivered 412,180 Model 3 and Model Y units worldwide in the first quarter, above market expectations of 408,500 units. A total of 10,695 Model S and Model X units were delivered in the first quarter, below expectations of 16,700 units.

In the first quarter, Tesla sold 229,322 China-made vehicles globally, up 25.88 percent from 182,174 in the same period last year, according to data released earlier this month by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

This means that 54 percent of Tesla's global deliveries in the first quarter were made at the Shanghai plant.

In China, Tesla delivered 137,429 vehicles in the first quarter, up 26.90 percent year-on-year, according to data from the CPCA monitored by CnEVPost.

Tesla's Shanghai plant exported 91,893 vehicles in the first quarter, up 24.39 percent year-on-year.

Tesla Model Y best-selling SUV in China in Mar with 54,937 units sold

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China Electric eMobility eV Expectations Li Auto Li Xiang

Li Auto CEO predicts China NEV penetration to exceed 80% by Dec 2025

The years 2023-2025 for China's smart EV market will be like the last three years of World War II in history from 1943-1945, said Li Xiang.

China's Mar passenger NEV retail up 23.6% MoM to 543,000, CPCA data show-CnEVPost

Li Xiang, founder, chairman and CEO of Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), predicted a month ago that China's new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rate would reach 70 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Now, perhaps fueled by optimism from the Shanghai auto show, he's making an even bolder prediction.

By December 2025, NEVs will account for more than 80 percent of all new vehicle sales in China, Li said in his WeChat status today, adding that the five permanent NEV brands will be born by then.

The years 2023-2025 for China's smart EV market will be like the last three years of World War II in history from 1943-1945, Li said.

Notably, this comes just a month after Li last made a bold prediction.

On March 25, Li said on Weibo that NEVs will contribute 70 percent of new car sales in China by the fourth quarter of 2025.

It's crossing the chasm theory that growth starts to accelerate when a new thing accounts for more than 30 percent, he said.

For the full year 2022, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 5.67 million units, up 90 percent year-on-year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

Retail sales of all passenger vehicles in China in 2022 were 20.54 million units, up 1.9 percent year-on-year. This represents a 27.6 percent penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China in 2022.

In March, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 543,000 units, contributing 34.2 percent of all passenger vehicle sales of 1,587,000 units.

In the past few years, annual passenger car sales in China have remained at about 20 million units per year, or about 1.67 million units per month.

If Li's latest forecast turns out to be accurate, it would mean that by December 2025, China's monthly NEV sales will exceed 1.3 million units.

Li Auto is one of the most successful EV startups in China, currently offering three models -- Li L7, Li L8 and Li L9 -- all extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs).

The company delivered 20,823 vehicles in March, the second time since last December that it has exceeded 20,000 units.

Li Auto delivered 52,584 vehicles in the first quarter, up 65.8 percent year-on-year and up 13.53 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.

On April 18, Li Auto officially unveiled its all-electric solution based on the 800 V high-voltage platform, capable of giving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) a 400 km range on a 10-minute charge.

With the release of this solution, Li Auto will officially enter a phase of parallel development of its EREV and BEV product lines. By 2025, Li Auto's product array will include one super flagship model, five EREVs, and five BEVs, it said.

By that time, Li Auto's models for the market priced above RMB 200,000 will fully meet the needs of family users, the company said.

Li Auto could reach 40,000 monthly sales in 2023, exec hints

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Auto Show China Electric eMobility eV Insights Research Note

Shanghai auto show: Takeaways from Deutsche Bank

Edison Yu's team shares their key takeaways on new model pricing, design, ADAS, and ultra-fast charging.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

As one of the most important auto shows in several years, the ongoing Shanghai auto show is attracting a lot of interest. In a research note sent to investors today, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team shares their thoughts on the event.

This year's Shanghai auto show began last week, with media days on April 18-19, professional visitor days on April 20-21, and general public access on April 22 - 27.

Yu's team shared their four key takeaways regarding new model pricing, local design, Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) capabilities, and ultra-fast charging.

"Pricing to be competitive at least through early 2024 With the price war raging on, we continue to expect OEMs to be aggressive as market share is the #1 priority," the team wrote.

Although no significant price cuts were announced at the show, automakers were very careful in disclosing prices.

did not reveal pricing details for the G6 other than the previous range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. Likewise, NIO did not detail the price of the new ES6, the team noted.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

If demand stays low, there could be another wave of price cuts, so the automakers do not want to overprice their new models. In addition, lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply, providing more cushion for pure electric vehicles, Yu's team said.

The team expects G6 pricing to trend toward the lower end of the range previously mentioned by XPeng, especially given that the X starts at just 190,000 yuan and the Model Y could see one more price cut this year.

To offset the drop in average selling price, automakers are taking steps to squeeze the structural costs of new platforms, such as XPeng's SEPA 2.0 platform, according to the team.

In terms of product design, the quality of local models is improving rapidly, and several local automakers began turning to foreign talent a few years ago to speed up the process, the team said.

BYD's design chief is Wolfang Egger, previously at Audi, and NIO's vice president of design is Kris Tomasson who came over from BMW, the team noted.

The team highlighted two models that really showcase this shift: the BYD Song L and the Hozon GT Speedster.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

"There are many other examples of bold and sleek design at the show and we expect this to be the new norm as the market shifts from ICE to EV," the team wrote.

With design and cost advantages, a natural extension is to export. During the show, Zeekr provided more details about its European strategy, the team noted.

On the ADAS side, Yu's team said subscriptions have proven difficult to monetize.

"We would have thought selling an ADAS subscription service could be easy next step. However, consumers are reluctant to adopt this business model," the team wrote.

XPeng is trying to dramatically reduce the cost of its XNGP system while improving its performance.

is currently beta testing the City NOA software with a goal of rolling it out to 100 cities nationwide by the end of 2023. The company believes its AD Max 3.0 system will be able to operate without HD maps and guarantees that all upgrades will be free for life with no subscription fees, the team noted.

NIO's NOP+ beta program is expected to end at the end of June and then begin charging subscribers RMB 380 per month.

"NIO is offering 2 years for free to 2023 ET7 buyers who pay the order deposit before June and we would expect this subscription to be increasingly used a promotional bundle to boost sales," the team wrote.

In terms of ultra-fast charging facilities, Yu's team said that automakers are just beginning to build up such capabilities, and real-world charging requires synchronization of the car, charger and grid. If any part becomes a bottleneck, charging speeds will not reach maximum performance.

NIO's ultra-fast 500 kW charger is now in service and open to other brands.

XPeng is rapidly rolling out its new S4 480 kW DC ultra-fast charging station, with a target of 500 this year.

Li Auto is focused on 800V solutions and expects its upcoming battery electric vehicle (BEV)to have 400 km of range in 10 minutes, the team noted.

Li Auto announced on April 18 that its first all-electric model will be the world's first to feature 's 4C Qilin Battery.

By 2025, Li Auto's product array will include a super flagship model, five extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and five BEVs, the company said.

Shanghai auto show: EVs take center stage, nearly 40 models equipped with LiDARs

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Lithium Lithium Carbonate Lithium Prices

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound

Lithium prices are expected to stop falling in the near term, but will continue their downward trend over the next two years, analysts say.

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound-CnEVPost

The epic decline in lithium carbonate prices is starting to see signs of stopping.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price in China rose RMB 2,500 ($362) per ton today to an average of RMB 137,500 per ton, the first single-day increase this year, according to data from Mysteel.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate, on the other hand, remained at RMB 180,000 per ton for the third consecutive day, according to the data.

With the rapid growth of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, prices for the key raw material for batteries have risen rapidly in the past two years.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and even a production disruption in Yichun, Jiangxi, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," at the end of February did not stop the downward trend.

Earlier this month, a local media outlet reported that half of Yichun's four major lithium producers had opted to shut down production to stem the downward price trend.

The accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices is unsustainable, with lithium prices expected to gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories decrease, said Chinese brokerage CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team in an April 20 research note.

Some companies were choosing to cut production due to oversupply, which is a normal phenomenon that would occur during price reductions, the team said.

However, the team believes the downward trend in lithium prices may not end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.

Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.

"We expect global lithium resource supply to grow from 760,000 tons to 1,973,000 tons in 2022-2025, with a CAGR of 37 percent," the team wrote.

Separately, CITIC Securities analyst Bai Junfei's team said in an April 17 research note that current lithium prices have fallen near key cost support levels and could stop falling if downstream demand picks up.

Downstream producers have material inventories that are all at extremely low levels, and overseas lithium prices are at a significant premium to Chinese lithium prices, which are also supportive factors, according to the team.

Notably, CITIC Securities shares CICC's view that lithium prices still have room to fall, as the oversupply will continue.

Global new lithium supply will reach 350,000 tons in 2023, and show a trend of quarterly increase, according to CITIC Securities.

In 2023-2025, total global lithium supply will grow to 1.2 million tons, 1.73 million tons and 2.32 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44 percent, 41 percent and 34 percent, corresponding to a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, 397,000 tons and 438,000 tons, respectively, according to the team.

As the oversupply expands, lithium prices will still have downward pressure in 2024 and 2025, and there is a risk of further price declines after a temporary stop, the team said.

(1 $= RMB 6.9023)

Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs

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