Category: Battery News

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV sodium-ion battery

Cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries decreases as lithium prices fall

With the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate falling back to around RMB 300,000 per ton, the cost advantage of sodium batteries is seen as no longer prominent.

The dramatic rise in lithium carbonate prices over the past few years has led many to look to the lower cost of sodium-ion batteries.

However, with the prolonged decline in the price of lithium carbonate, a key raw material for lithium-ion batteries, earlier in the year, the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries is seen as having diminished significantly.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate surged in 2022, with prices once topping RMB 600,000 (84,400) per ton, and in this context, sodium-ion batteries were highly sought after, the Shanghai Securities News noted in a report today.

However, very few models are confirmed to carry sodium-ion batteries this year, with only Chery's iCar, Sehol E10X and Jiangling EV3 having been the few ones, the report said.

Meanwhile, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen back to around RMB 300,000 per ton, and the cost advantage of sodium batteries is no longer prominent, the report said.

Lithium carbonate price in China rose to about RMB 600,000 per ton at one point in November 2022, about 14 times the average RMB 41,000 per ton price in June 2020.

After that, however, lithium carbonate price began to decline until a month ago, when it finally stopped falling.

Prior to April 21, lithium carbonate price had not seen a single day of gains in China this year, falling about 65 percent since the beginning of the year.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate today averaged RMB 305,000 per ton in China, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate stood at RMB 290,000 per ton, according to data from Mysteel.

The battery industry chain has been actively developing sodium-ion batteries in recent years, and currently has mass production capabilities, but the feedback from the demand side is not positive, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said in a report on May 22.

Sodium-ion batteries are still in the early stages of industrialization, and their cost advantages cannot be fully exploited at this time due to controversial core technology routes, inadequate supply chain preparation, and immature production processes, the CPCA said.

Sodium-ion's abundant resource reserves are difficult to quickly translate into cost advantages, and when the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is rapidly declining, automakers are hardly motivated to choose to carry sodium-ion batteries in the short term, according to the CPCA.

Nevertheless, the development of the sodium-ion industry chain in China continues.

There are currently more than 35 sodium-ion battery manufacturers in China in the interim-testing stage, with another 50 or more in the lab stage, Shanghai Securities News said, citing data from local think tank GGII.

Companies able to provide samples are expected to exceed 20 in the first half of 2023, and more than five companies will achieve mass production of sodium-ion batteries in the second half of the year, according to the report.

The sodium-ion battery industry chain is not yet mature, and it will take at least two to three years for the industry to really move toward industrialization, said Chen Liangqin, director of local lithium battery maker Veken Technology, as quoted by Shanghai Securities News.

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Battery-grade lithium carbonate price up by RMB 2,500 per ton

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Industry News SAIC Solid-state Battery

SAIC expects its 1st model with solid-state battery to roll off line in 2025

SAIC is ramping up development work on solid-state battery cells, with its first production model powered by solid-state battery set to roll off the assembly line in 2025, it said.

(A concept car from SAIC's IM Motors on display at the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show. Image credit: CnEVPost)

China's largest carmaker SAIC Group expects to see its first model with solid-state battery roll off the assembly line in two years, as more local carmakers target the new battery technology for a longer range.

SAIC is ramping up its research and development work on solid-state battery cells and is making every effort to promote the large-scale application of solid-state batteries, the company said in a recent investor survey, according to a May 22 report by local media Jiemian.

SAIC's first mass-produced model with the solid-state battery will roll off the production line in 2025, it said, adding that it will allow users to enjoy a safe car experience while providing them with higher energy density power battery cells.

The report did not provide any further details. SAIC has not disclosed the investor activity.

On May 19, Ganfeng Lithium -- the world's largest lithium producer by market capitalization -- said in the minutes of an investor meeting that it had begun mass production of its first-generation solid-state battery.

Ganfeng's first-generation solid-state battery can reach an energy density of 260 Wh/kg, and its production line is designed to have an annual capacity of 4 GWh, according to the minutes.

Back at SAIC, its solid-state battery appears to have been developed with local startup QingTao Energy Development, similar to what did with Beijing WeLion New Energy Technology.

On July 6, 2022, SAIC announced that it had set up a joint lab with QingTao to develop solid-state batteries.

The two will focus on the mass production of solid-state batteries with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers, 4C fast-charging technology and the development of high-safety, long-life solid-state batteries, according to a press release at the time.

C refers to the battery's charging multiplier, and 4C means that the battery could theoretically be fully charged in a quarter of an hour.

The lab will also conduct high-efficiency solid-state battery integration technology development to push solid-state battery technology to accelerate mass production, SAIC previously said.

NIO unveiled a 150-kWh semi-solid-state battery when it launched its flagship sedan, the NIO ET7, at the NIO Day 2020 event on January 9, 2021, thus bringing the new battery technology to wider attention.

Earlier this month, NIO filed for the addition of WeLion as a battery cell supplier in three models, signaling that its 150-kWh semi-solid-state battery pack is not far from being available.

NIO files to use semi-solid-state batteries in its vehicles

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Ganfeng Lithium Solid-state Battery

Lithium producer Ganfeng says it has started mass production of 1st gen solid-state battery

Ganfeng said its first-generation solid-state battery can reach an energy density of 260 Wh/kg, with a production line capable of producing 4 GWh per year.

(Image credit: Ganfeng Lithium)

China's Ganfeng Lithium -- the world's largest lithium producer by market capitalization -- said it has begun mass production of its first-generation solid-state battery, after announcing the new technology in late 2021.

Ganfeng revealed the progress in a May 19 investor conference meeting minutes, saying its first-generation solid-state batteries can reach an energy density of 260 Wh/kg and that the production line is designed to have an annual capacity of 4 GWh.

Production of the solid-state battery is currently undergoing capacity creep, with application scenarios including power batteries and energy storage, according to the minutes.

Ganfeng's second-generation hybrid solid-state lithium battery uses lithium metal as the anode and can reach an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, the company said.

The safety performance of the second-generation solid-state battery meets automotive requirements, and the cycling performance of the sample battery has met the requirements of car companies, Ganfeng said.

Ganfeng unveiled its first-generation solid-state battery, a hybrid solid-state and liquid lithium-ion battery, on December 10, 2021.

The battery has an oxide electrolyte and uses graphite for the anode. It has a diaphragm, but unlike conventional diaphragms, it uses a solid electrolyte diaphragm.

Ganfeng did not announce the energy density of the first-generation solid-state battery at the time, but said the second-generation solid-state battery had an energy density of more than 360 Wh/kg.

The company's latest announcement means that it has made new progress in the development of the second-generation solid-state battery over the past year and a half, allowing for a further increase in energy density.

Current mainstream lithium-ion battery cells have an energy density of just over 200 Wh/kg, and 's (NYSE: NIO) 150 kWh semi-solid-state battery, expected to be available within months, is 360 Wh/kg.

On April 19, unveiled its new battery technology, Condensed Battery, which claims an energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg for a single cell.

The Condensed Battery will be available for use in electric vehicles and will have mass production capability within this year, said Wu Kai, CATL's chief scientist at the time.

CATL unveils Condensed Battery for electric aircrafts and EVs

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Astroinno Battery Battery News Battery Tech China Electric eMobility eV Gotion

Gotion unveils new battery based on LMFP chemistry with range up to 1,000 km

The pack is based on Gotion's new L600 LMFP cells with an energy density of 240 Wh/kg and will be in mass production in 2024.

(Astroinno Battery. Image credit: Gotion High-tech)

Several Chinese power battery makers have previously announced batteries with ranges of up to 1,000 km, but all are based on nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) ternary materials.

Now Gotion High-tech has unveiled a new battery technology, which claims to be able to achieve a range of 1,000 km even without the use of expensive ternary materials.

Hefei, Anhui-based Gotion unveiled its L600 LMFP battery cells based on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry and a battery pack called Astroinno Battery at its 12th technology conference today.

The L600 LMFP cells have an energy density of 240 Wh/kg, or 525 Wh/L. The cells support 4,000 cycles at room temperature and 1,800 cycles at high temperature, according to the company.

A battery system based on the L600 LMFP cell could have an energy density of 190 Wh/kg, which is higher than the energy density of packs based on ternary chemistry systems that are in mass production now, Gotion said, adding that the new cell will be in mass production in 2024.

The energy density growth of mass-produced LFP cells has faced a bottleneck, and further improvements require chemical system improvements, so the LFP solution with manganese addition was born, said Cheng Qian, Gotion's executive president of international operations.

Gotion unveiled the Astroinno Battery based on L600 LMFP cells, saying that the pack uses a sandwich structure with double-sided liquid cooling technology and minimalist design, resulting in a 45 percent reduction in the number of structural components and a 32 percent reduction in the weight of structural components.

The minimalist electrical design thinking makes the pack's wiring harness length only 26 percent of the previous one, from the original 303-meter harness down to 80 meters, with a volumetric grouping efficiency of 76 percent, according to the company.

The pack has an energy density of 190 Wh/kg, surpassing the energy density of ternary batteries currently on the market, Gotion said.

Gotion is not the first manufacturer to release a 1,000-km range battery pack, but it is the first to achieve that range based on the LFP chemistry system.

, China's largest power battery maker, unveiled Qilin Battery, or CTP (cell to pack) 3.0, on June 23, 2022, claiming an energy density of up to 255 Wh/kg to support a vehicle with a 1,000km range.

The Qilin Battery is an innovation in battery structure, not a chemical system, and a 1,000 km range battery pack requires NCM chemistry.

The first Qilin Battery with a 1,000 km range is the 001 of Zeekr, a premium electric vehicle brand of , and deliveries of the model with this range have already started on May 16.

On April 21, Svolt Energy, which was spun off from Great Wall Motor, made the real-life debut of its Dragon Armor Battery at the Shanghai auto show.

Dragon Armor is also an innovation in battery pack structure without involving battery chemistry.

Svolt Energy said that the Dragon Armor Battery with LFP cells could have a range of more than 800 kilometers, while such batteries with ternary cells could have a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.

Gotion installed 1.18 GWh of power batteries in China in April, ranking fifth with a 4.68 percent share, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA).

In the LFP market, Gotion ranked fourth with a 6.17 percent share in April.

Gotion posts 135% year-on-year profit growth in Q1, site for US battery plant nears finalization

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Eve Energy Eve Energy Malaysia

Eve Energy to buy land for battery plant in Malaysia

The battery plant will support electric two-wheeler and power tool manufacturers in Malaysia and Southeast Asia, Eve Energy said.

(Image credit: Eve Energy)

Chinese lithium battery maker Eve Energy will build a new battery factory in Malaysia, just days after announcing it would build a plant in Hungary.

Eve Energy Malaysia, the Malaysian arm of Eve Energy, signed a memorandum of understanding with Pemaju Kelang Lama Sdn Bhd (PKL) on May 12 to buy land from the latter to set up a lithium battery manufacturing plant in Malaysia, according to a stock exchange announcement.

The land is 66.58083 acres (26.9 hectares) and the price is 164 million ringgit ($36.6 million), according to the May 12 announcement.

The signing of the MOU marks the effective advancement of Eve Energy's cylindrical lithium battery manufacturing project, which will further meet the company's need to scale up its cylindrical battery capacity, the announcement said.

The battery plant will support electric two-wheeler and power tool manufacturers in Malaysia and Southeast Asia, and continue to consolidate and enhance the company's presence in these areas, Eve Energy said.

Eve Energy, one of the world's largest power battery manufacturers, installed 2.4 GWh of batteries worldwide in the first quarter, up 75.5 percent year-on-year, according to data released by South Korean market research firm SNE Research on May 3.

This puts Eve Energy in 9th place globally with a 1.8 percent share, while and BYD are the top two with 35.0 percent and 16.2 percent shares, respectively.

The announcement comes two days after Eve Energy announced on May 10 that its subsidiary EVE Power Hungary had signed an agreement with Debreceni, a subsidiary of the Hungarian government of Debrecen, to purchase land owned by the latter in the city's northwest industrial zone for the production of cylindrical power cells.

The land in Hungary covers 45 hectares and the purchase price is 22.5 euros per square meter plus VAT, for a total price of about 12.86 million euros ($14.1 million).

The deal will meet the company's need for production land for future growth and further expand its capacity for power and energy storage batteries, Eve Energy said at the time.

Eve Energy's announcement provided no further information, though the move appears to be in preparation for supplying BMW.

($1 = 4.4755 ringgit)

Chinese battery maker Eve Energy to build plant in Hungary

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Lithium Lithium Carbonate Lithium Prices

Lithium price rally picking up steam in China

Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 7.61 percent in China today, and industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 13.25 percent, both the largest single-day gains of this year.

Lithium price rally picking up steam in China-CnEVPost

Lithium, a key raw material for batteries, is seeing accelerating price gains after a rally that began late last month.

The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was RMB 247,500 ($35,680) per ton today, up RMB 17,500 per ton, or 7.61 percent, from yesterday, according to data from Mysteel.

Industrial grade lithium carbonate averaged RMB 235,000 per ton today, up RMB 27,500 per ton, or 13.25 percent from yesterday.

This is the 10th consecutive day of increase in battery grade lithium carbonate prices and the 13th consecutive day of increase in industrial grade lithium carbonate prices, and they are both the largest single-day gains of this year, CnEVPost's monitoring shows.

As of April 21, lithium carbonate prices have not seen a single day of gains in China this year, falling about 65 percent since the start of the year.

In this round of increases that began late last month, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose 37.5 percent from RMB 180,000 per ton, while industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 74 percent.

High lithium prices are clearly not good for China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, but the continued decline in the price of the raw material also reflects weak consumer demand at the end of the spectrum.

The price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose to RMB 590,000 per ton in China on November 23, 2022, up about 14 times from RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

The significant upward movement in lithium prices has resulted in EV makers facing higher battery costs, which has led to impaired profits.

However, the fall in lithium carbonate prices since the end of last year has raised many people more concerns about weak downstream EV demand and price wars.

As lithium prices rebound, some analysts are beginning to see possible signs of improvement in the EV industry.

Lithium carbonate prices have stopped falling and stabilized, reflecting gradually improving downstream demand, Guotai Junan analyst Shi Yan's team said in a research note on May 11.

On May 10, CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team said that the previous sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers had fueled a wait-and-see mood among new energy vehicle (NEV) consumers.

In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.

CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team said in an April 20 research note that the accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices was unsustainable, and lithium prices may gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories are reduced.

Due to oversupply, some companies choose to cut production, which is a normal phenomenon that may occur in the process of price reduction, the team said.

However, the team believes that the downward trend in lithium prices may not come to a complete end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.

Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.

($1 = RMB 6.9468)

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound

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Battery Data Battery News BYD CABIA CALB CATL China Electric eMobility eV Gotion High-Tech LFP Batteries Monthly Data Ternary Batteries

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market

BYD returned to the top spot in the LFP battery market with a 42.68 percent share in April, overtaking CATL's 33.65 percent.

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market-CnEVPost

CATL overtook BYD (OTCMKTS: BYDDY) in China's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery market in March for the first time this year. Now, the latter has regained its top spot.

China's power battery installed base in April was 25.1 GWh, up 89.4 percent year-on-year but down 9.5 percent from March, according to data released today by the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA).

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market-CnEVPost

CATL's power battery installed base in April was 10.26 GWh, ranking first with a 40.83 percent share, down from 44.95 percent in March.

BYD installed 7.32 GWh of power batteries in April, ranking second with a 29.11 percent share, up 2.46 percentage points from March's 26.65 percent.

CALB installed 2.20 GWh of power batteries in April, ranking third with a share of 8.74 percent, down 1.54 percentage points from 10.28 percent in March.

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market-CnEVPost

Eve Energy overtook Gotion High-tech to rank No. 4 with 1.38 GWh of installed base and 5.48 percent share.

Gotion High-tech ranked 5th with 1.18 GWh installed in April and a 4.68 percent share. It ranked 4th with a 4.51 percent share in March.

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market-CnEVPost

China's ternary Li-ion battery installed base in April was 8.0 GWh, accounting for 31.8 percent of total installed base, up 83.5 percent year-on-year but down 8.3 percent from March.

The installed base of LFP batteries was 17.1 GWh, accounting for 68.1 percent of the total, up 92.7 percent year-on-year but down 10.0 percent from March.

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market-CnEVPost

In the ternary battery market, CATL ranked first with 56.22 percent of the installed base of 4.50 GWh in April.

CALB and Sunwoda ranked second and third in the ternary battery market with 17.29 percent and 6.07 percent shares, respectively.

In the LFP battery market, BYD regained the top spot with a 42.68 percent share by overtaking CATL with 7.31 GWh installed in April.

CATL installed 5.76 GWh in the LFP battery market in April, ranking second with a 33.65 percent share.

In March, CATL's share of the LFP market was 39.47, higher than BYD's 38.88 percent, the first time it has overtaken BYD in this market during the year.

Eve Energy and Gotion High-tech ranked third and fourth in the LFP battery market with 7.01 percent and 6.17 percent share, respectively.

China NEV sales down 2.6% MoM to 636,000 in Apr, CAAM data show

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Eve Energy Eve Energy Hungary

Chinese battery maker Eve Energy to build plant in Hungary

Eve Energy sealed a battery cell supply relationship with BMW last September to supply large cylindrical lithium-ion cells for the latter's Neue Klasse line of vehicle models.

(Image credit: Eve Energy)

Chinese lithium battery maker Eve Energy will build a power battery factory in Hungary, possibly in preparation for its supply to BMW.

Eve Energy subsidiary EVE Power Hungary signed an agreement on May 9 with Debreceni, a subsidiary of Hungary's Debrecen government, to buy land owned by the latter in the city's northwest industrial zone for the production of cylindrical power cells, according to a Shenzhen stock exchange announcement yesterday.

The land covers 45 hectares and the purchase price is 22.5 euros per square meter plus VAT, for a total price of about 12.86 million euros ($14.1 million), according to the announcement.

The deal will meet the company's need for production land for future growth and further scale up production capacity for power and energy storage batteries, Eve Energy said.

Eve Energy's announcement provided no further information, though the move appears to be in preparation for supplying BMW.

On September 9, 2022, Eve Energy announced that it had finalized a cell supply relationship with BMW Group to supply large cylindrical lithium-ion cells for the latter's Neue Klasse line of models.

BMW also said at the time in a post on its official WeChat account that it had awarded contracts worth more than 10 billion euros to and Eve Energy to meet the demand for battery cells for the new generation of models.

The two partners will each build two battery cell plants in China and Europe, each with an annual capacity of 20 GWh, BMW said at the time, adding that it will also look for partners to build two more core plants in the North American Free Trade Area.

BMW will first use cylindrical cells in new-generation models starting in 2025, and that sixth-generation lithium-ion cell will bring a major technological leap forward, allowing more than 20 percent higher energy density, up to 30 percent higher range and up to 30 percent faster charging, it said at the time.

Eve Energy, one of the world's largest manufacturers of power batteries, installed 2.4 GWh of batteries in the first quarter, up 75.5 percent year-on-year, according to data released by South Korean market research firm SNE Research on May 3.

This puts Eve Energy in 9th place globally with a 1.8 percent share, while CATL and BYD are in the top two with 35.0 percent and 16.2 percent shares respectively.

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NIO sees first swap station roll off line in Europe as Hungarian plant goes into operation

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Battery News China Earnings Electric eMobility eV Gotion Gotion US

Gotion posts 135% year-on-year profit growth in Q1, site for US battery plant nears finalization

Gotion is in the process of exploring a battery plant in the US, and the site is close to being decided, a company executive said.

Gotion High-tech, the Volkswagen-backed Chinese power battery giant, reported strong first-quarter results and revealed more about the company's plans to build a battery plant in the US.

Gotion reported first-quarter revenue of RMB 7.18 billion yuan ($1.04 billion), up 83.16 percent from a year earlier, despite a 16.8 percent decrease from the fourth quarter, according to an exchange announcement Friday from the Shenzhen-listed company.

The year-on-year increase in revenue was mainly due to growth in sales, Gotion said in the announcement.

The company reported a net profit of RMB 75.61 million in the first quarter, up 134.81 percent from a year earlier, but down 53.04 percent from the fourth quarter last year.

China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales saw strong growth in the fourth quarter of last year, as consumers seized the last chance to get state subsidies for NEV purchases. For the first quarter, while it is usually a slow time for auto consumption, a rare price war this year delivered an additional blow.

China's first quarter NEV sales were 1.32 million units, up 23.72 percent year-on-year, but down 26.62 percent from the fourth quarter of last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

Gotion, China's fourth-largest power battery manufacturer, saw its performance reflect these seasonal trends.

In March, Gotion installed 1.25 GWh of power batteries in China, ranking fourth with a 4.51 percent share, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA).

China EV battery installations in Mar: CATL overtakes BYD in LFP market for 1st time this year-CnEVPost

Gotion aims to exceed 300 GWh of capacity by 2025, according to its previously announced plans.

In addition to its quarterly earnings report, Gotion announced its annual report, which showed it had revenue of RMB 23.05 billion in 2022, up 122.59 percent year-on-year.

Gotion's revenue in overseas markets in 2022 was RMB 2.98 billion, up 464.76 percent year-on-year.

The company's profit in 2022 was RMB 199 million, up 408.87 percent year-on-year.

US battery factory nears

Gotion is conducting an in-depth exploration of building a battery factory in the US, and the site is now close to being determined, the company's vice president of international operations Ray Chen said Friday while speaking with media, including CnEVPost, at its Hefei headquarters.

The company is well on its way to building a plant in the US as an early move to capture the explosive growth opportunities in the US and Europe in 2025-2027, Chen said.

Influenced by the Inflation Reduction Act, Gotion's US plant is necessary, he added.

"The US and Europe are at the point where rapid growth is about to begin in this industry, and we certainly can't afford to give that business away," Chen said.

Gotion is currently selling batteries to US customers through exports, with sales expected to be $500 million this year, according to the company.

Notably, on October 5 last year, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said in a statement that Gotion chose to build its $2.36 billion battery component manufacturing facility in Big Rapids.

The Michigan Strategic Fund (MSF) Board approved the investment by Gotion, which will launch a multi-phase project in Big Rapids to build a battery component manufacturing facility there to serve its entire North American and global customer base, according to the statement.

Once completed, Gotion's plant is expected to produce 150,000 tons of cathode material per year, with two 550,000-square-foot production plants planned as well as other supporting facilities, the statement said.

Gotion chairman Li Zhen said at the media event Friday that the battery materials plant is sited in Michigan partly because of the relatively inexpensive supply of hydroelectric power in the area.

Gotion has been in contact with the local government for about two years, and final approval for the plant is pending, Li added.

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Gotion to build $2.36 billion battery materials plant in Michigan

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Battery News China Electric eMobility eV Lithium Lithium Carbonate Lithium Prices

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound

Lithium prices are expected to stop falling in the near term, but will continue their downward trend over the next two years, analysts say.

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound-CnEVPost

The epic decline in lithium carbonate prices is starting to see signs of stopping.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price in China rose RMB 2,500 ($362) per ton today to an average of RMB 137,500 per ton, the first single-day increase this year, according to data from Mysteel.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate, on the other hand, remained at RMB 180,000 per ton for the third consecutive day, according to the data.

With the rapid growth of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, prices for the key raw material for batteries have risen rapidly in the past two years.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and even a production disruption in Yichun, Jiangxi, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," at the end of February did not stop the downward trend.

Earlier this month, a local media outlet reported that half of Yichun's four major lithium producers had opted to shut down production to stem the downward price trend.

The accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices is unsustainable, with lithium prices expected to gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories decrease, said Chinese brokerage CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team in an April 20 research note.

Some companies were choosing to cut production due to oversupply, which is a normal phenomenon that would occur during price reductions, the team said.

However, the team believes the downward trend in lithium prices may not end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.

Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.

"We expect global lithium resource supply to grow from 760,000 tons to 1,973,000 tons in 2022-2025, with a CAGR of 37 percent," the team wrote.

Separately, CITIC Securities analyst Bai Junfei's team said in an April 17 research note that current lithium prices have fallen near key cost support levels and could stop falling if downstream demand picks up.

Downstream producers have material inventories that are all at extremely low levels, and overseas lithium prices are at a significant premium to Chinese lithium prices, which are also supportive factors, according to the team.

Notably, CITIC Securities shares CICC's view that lithium prices still have room to fall, as the oversupply will continue.

Global new lithium supply will reach 350,000 tons in 2023, and show a trend of quarterly increase, according to CITIC Securities.

In 2023-2025, total global lithium supply will grow to 1.2 million tons, 1.73 million tons and 2.32 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44 percent, 41 percent and 34 percent, corresponding to a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, 397,000 tons and 438,000 tons, respectively, according to the team.

As the oversupply expands, lithium prices will still have downward pressure in 2024 and 2025, and there is a risk of further price declines after a temporary stop, the team said.

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Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs

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