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XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6

XPeng's financial performance in the first quarter and its outlook for the second quarter will be weak, though the company may see a turnaround after the launch of G6, according to Edison Yu's team.

XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6-CnEVPost

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) will report its unaudited financial results for the first quarter on May 24 before the US markets open. As usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

XPeng's performance will be weak in the first quarter and the outlook for the second quarter is likely to be subdued, but a turnaround in the second half of this year may be in the cards after the launch of the new SUV G6, according to a research note sent to investors today.

First quarter earnings

Previously released data showed that XPeng delivered 18,230 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

The company's previous revenue guidance for the first quarter was RMB 4 billion to RMB 4.2 billion, a decrease of about 43.7 percent to 46.3 percent year on year.

XPeng sales have been weak since the second half of last year, with deliveries of just 5,218 units in January. It rebounded to 7,079 units in April, essentially flat from March.

Yu's team expects XPeng to report revenue of RMB 4.04 billion and adjusted earnings per share of RMB -2.52 for the first quarter.

The team expects XPeng's gross margin to be 5.0 percent and vehicle margin to be 0.4 percent in the first quarter, or down 530 basis points sequentially, as price cuts and promotions hurt margins.

This compares to the current consensus analyst estimates of RMB 4.24 billion, 6.1 percent and RMB -2.09, respectively, in a Bloomberg survey.

Subdued second quarter

Yu's team believes that XPeng deliveries are likely to be subdued in the second quarter as the G9 has struggled to gain order flow and supply constraints have hampered P7i deliveries.

G9 sales have been below 1,000 units for the past three months, and a summer price cut is likely, the team said.

XPeng management has said that orders for the P7i have increased unexpectedly and will increase more meaningfully in June and beyond. As a result, Yu's team expects XPeng to guide for low-mid 20,000 range second-quarter deliveries.

Deliveries of the upcoming G6 will begin in late June and the model will not make a significant contribution in the second quarter, according to the team.

G6 is the swing factor

In the company's fourth-quarter earnings call on March 17, XPeng management said the G6 will be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter, with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($28,590) to RMB 300,000.

XPeng's monthly sales target for the G6 is 2-3 times that of the P7, He Xiaopeng, the company's chairman and CEO, said during the call.

XPeng unveiled a new architecture called SEPA (Smart Electric Platform Architecture) 2.0 at a technology conference in Shanghai on April 16, saying the G6 will be the first model built on the architecture.

The architecture will shorten the development cycle of future models by 20 percent and optimize development efficiency significantly. Interchangeability and interoperability of common and modular components between new models will reach 80 percent, enabling XPeng to meet diverse customer needs at an optimized cost, it said at the time.

Yu's team believes that the G6 will need to be successful for XPeng to be truly relevant again in the marketplace.

On a relative basis, XPeng management sees the G6 selling 2-3 times as many units as the P7, which means at least more than 5,000 units per month, according to Yu's team.

"Our view is XPeng will price G6 below Model Y in hopes of attracting consumers with its sleeker design and newer interior," the team wrote.

With the increased production of the G6, XPeng management believes total monthly deliveries could reach 15,000 units at some point in the third quarter.

"This seems achievable and we model XPeng reaching this level in Sep with potentially some help from a midcycle P5 face-lift ('P5i')," the team said.

($1 = RMB 6.9959)

XPeng G6 debuts at Shanghai auto show

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China China EV Market Insight Electric eMobility eV Insights JD Power Tesla

Chinese consumers’ intent to buy NEVs rises for 6th consecutive year, JD Power study shows

Chinese consumers' intent to buy NEVs continues to rise, further squeezing the share of the fuel vehicle market, according to JD Power.

China passenger NEV retail drops 3.6% MoM to 527,000 in Apr, CPCA data show-CnEVPost

Among Chinese consumers who intend to buy a new vehicle in the next six months, the share of those considering new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 33 percent, up 6 percentage points from 27 percent in 2022, for the sixth consecutive year of increases, according to a study by US market research firm JD Power.

JD Power released the figures in its China New Vehicle Intender Study (NVIS) yesterday, saying the long-term trend toward NEVs is becoming clearer.

Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 527,000 units in April, contributing 32.3 percent of all passenger vehicle sales of 1.63 million units, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on May 9.

For comparison, the ratio was 27.1 percent in April last year and only 7.3 percent in January 2021.

In 2023, Chinese consumers' intent to buy NEVs continues to rise, further squeezing the share of the fuel vehicle market, according to JD Power. Intended buyers are consumers who plan to purchase a vehicle in the next six months.

The percentage of consumers considering new energy SUVs has increased significantly, from 11 percent last year to 16 percent this year, and is already on par with new energy sedans, according to JD Power.

Among the new energy models favored most by consumers, luxury plug-in hybrid SUVs and midsize all-electric SUVs saw the largest potential consumer growth, increasing by 6 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.

The percentage of consumers considering purchasing compact pure electric sedans and mid-size pure electric sedans declined significantly, by 7.5 percent and 5.4 percent respectively.

Going forward, there is a significant trend of consumption upgrading alongside rising penetration of NEVs, according to JD Power.

Data released by the CPCA earlier this week also showed the trend, with retail sales of mini-electric vehicle specialist SAIC-GM-Wuling down 15.9 percent year-on-year in January-April and budget EV maker down 14 percent year-on-year in the period.

, which is targeting the higher-end market, saw retail sales in China increase 61.5 percent year-on-year during January to April, with (NASDAQ: LI) up 118.1 percent and NIO (NYSE: NIO) up 22.2 percent. All three of these companies' sales were dominated by SUVs.

Among other findings, JD Power said more than half of consumers prefer to buy local brands in China, with new car-making brands, in particular, more popular.

For the second year in a row, the percentage of people considering buying a local brand vehicle exceeded 50 percent. For Japanese brands the proportion slipped to 12 percent from 15 percent last year, while German brands rose to 17 percent from 13 percent.

Potential consumers with higher education and higher budgets are more receptive to battery swap and battery leasing sales models, JD Power said.

Potential consumers with adequate budgets are more willing to pay for the battery swap model and also have a stronger willingness to buy NEVs, according to the study.

BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz had the highest luxury brand influence scores in the JD Power study, scoring 683, 680 and 661 out of a total of 1,000 points, respectively.

NIO ranked 10th with a score of 607, the highest score among local Chinese luxury brands and higher than Porsche's 605.

HiPhi and IM Motors are the other two brands that made it into this luxury brand ranking, with scores of 549 and 542, respectively.

In the mainstream brand influence score, BYD ranked first with 678 points, Tesla 11th with 634 points, 15th with 631 points, and Li Auto in 34th place with 598 points.

Full CPCA rankings: Top-selling models and automakers in China in Apr

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China Earnings Electric eMobility eV Insights Li Auto

Li Auto Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank’s first look

The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the second half of this year, Edison Yu's team said.  |  Li Auto US | Li Auto HK

Li Auto Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank's first look-CnEVPost

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) today reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their first look in a research note sent to investors.

Without further ado, here's what the team's research note had to say.

Li Auto delivered mostly strong 1Q results along with a solid volume outlook. Deliveries were already reported for 1Q at 52,584 units, leading to revenue of 18.7bn RMB, beating our 17.7bn forecast due to higher ASPs.

Impressively, while volume was toward the low-end of guidance, sales were above the high-end despite mix headwinds.

Total gross margin of 20.4% was slightly below our 20.7% estimate on softer vehicle margin of 19.8% (-20bps QoQ; vs. our 20.5%), suggesting that launch costs were heavier and/or BOM of new models may be greater than anticipated as pricing didn't flow through.

Opex of 3.5bn was below our expectation, mainly due to lower R&D, leading to higher-than-expected net profit; adjusted EPS was 1.35, easily ahead of DBe/consensus, helped by higher interest/ investment and other income (>30c benefit).

Free cash flow came in just below 7bn, materially better than anticipated, mainly due to working capital performance on payables.

Management provided solid 2Q guidance calling for 76,000-81,000 in deliveries, ahead of our 75,000 forecast, implying a small step-up from April's 25,681 units.

The company already expressed confidence in reaching 25,000-30,000 deliveries this month once the cheaper L7 and L8 "Air" trims garner a full month of availability.

The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the 2H. We have seen the L9/L8 drop off somewhat in monthly volume already.

Revenue is expected to be 24.22-25.86bn RMB in 2Q, above DBe/consensus estimates and implying slightly better ASP/mix than our model.

Li Auto sees Q1 revenue beat expectations, net income up 252% from Q4

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China China EV Market Insight Electric eMobility eV Insights

NEV demand in China expected to pick up in Q2, analysts say

Demand for NEVs is expected to pick up in the second quarter as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, according to analysts at CITIC Securities.

NEV demand in China expected to pick up in Q2, analysts say-CnEVPost

Chinese consumers' wait-and-see sentiment when it comes to buying new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to ease significantly in the second quarter, which will facilitate a recovery in demand for the sector, local analysts said.

In the first quarter, China's overall NEV sales growth slowed as demand was overdrawn before subsidies for NEV purchases were withdrawn late last year, coupled with strong consumer wait-and-see sentiment, said CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team in a research note today.

For consumers, the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers have fueled their wait-and-see, according to the team.

In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.

China's state subsidy for NEV purchases expired at the end of last year. To take advantage of the subsidy, some consumers who had planned to buy vehicles in 2023 may have advanced their purchase plans, leading to weak NEV sales in the first quarter.

Retail NEV sales in China were about 1.32 million units in the first quarter, up 23.72 percent year-on-year, but down 26.62 percent from the fourth quarter, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

In addition to the withdrawal of subsidies, the price of lithium carbonate, a key raw material for batteries, has continued to fall since the end of last year, with some electric vehicle companies beginning to cut prices and subsequently seeing a price war across the auto industry.

As of April 21, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate had not seen a single-day gain this year, falling 65 percent from the beginning of the year.

After that, the price of lithium carbonate has largely stabilized, and as of today, battery grade lithium carbonate has risen for the eighth day in a row.

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Battery grade lithium carbonate up RMB 4,000 per ton

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China China EV Market Insight Electric eMobility eV EV Data Insights Monthly Data Nio Research Note

Deutsche Bank on Apr China EV sales: Li Auto shines while NIO struggles

Edison Yu's team continues to expect most automakers to be aggressive, as market share is a top priority.

China's major electric vehicle (EV) makers announced their April deliveries yesterday, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their take, as usual.

"April sales were generally better than feared for most OEMs we track with the exception of NIO who is struggling at the moment from both weak demand for its sedans and a major production platform transition for its SUVs," the team said in a note sent to investors yesterday.

continues to impress, setting a monthly delivery record and showing continued strong traction for its three models in the premium SUV segment, the team said.

As a backdrop, Li Auto delivered a record 25,681 vehicles in April, surpassing the 20,000-delivery mark for the second consecutive month.

NIO deliveries fell further to 6,658 in April as the product switch continued. XPeng delivered 7,079 vehicles in April, essentially unchanged from March, and the company appears to be on the cusp of emerging from the mire of weak sales that lasted about one year.

Here is the full text of Yu's team's note.

April sales were generally better than feared for most OEMs we track with the exception of NIO who is struggling at the moment from both weak demand for its sedans and a major production platform transition for its SUVs.

Li Auto continues to impress, setting a record for monthly deliveries, demonstrating continued robust traction in the premium SUV segment with its 3 models.

's volume held in about flat MoM as new P7i ramps up.

Overall, we continue to expect most OEMs to be aggressive as market share is the #1 priority. Although there were no big price cuts announced at the Shanghai Auto Show, our view is that there is likely another wave of price cuts to come as industry demand remains soft.

Moreover, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped dramatically this year which provides more cushion on the gross margin side.

April OEM recap

Li Auto delivered 25,681 vehicles (+23% MoM, +516% YoY), beating our forecast and setting a new monthly record. This includes >10,000 units of the L7 in its first full month of deliveries (vs. 7,702 in March).

XPeng delivered 7,079 vehicles (+17% MoM; -55% YoY), slightly below our expectations. The P7i mid-cycle face-lift should help volume in May/June as management expressed confidence in the order book.

XPeng officially revealed the G6 at the Shanghai Auto Show last month and this will be the most important product for the company this year to grow sales (double current monthly sales by end of 3Q), set for late June deliveries.

NIO delivered only 6,658 vehicles (-36% MoM, +31% YoY), below our forecast. Demand for ET5 and ES7 appear to be getting weaker sequentially while the rest of the portfolio is undergoing a platform transition (except for ET7 getting an interior upgrade this month).

Deliveries of the new EC7 began on 4/28, a few weeks earlier than anticipated, suggesting operational execution is on track. The new ES6 is expected to begin deliveries toward end of May (NIO's best selling SUV model).

delivered sales of 8,101 vehicles (+22% MoM; +279% YoY). The average order value for 001 shooting break sedan is 336k RMB and 009 luxury MPV is 527k. Zeekr's upcoming X model is expected to garner higher relative volumes with starting price of just 190k (deliver in June, targeting 40,000 units for 2023).

NIO deliveries fall further to 6,658 in Apr as product switch continues

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Auto Show China Electric eMobility eV Insights Research Note

Shanghai auto show: Takeaways from Deutsche Bank

Edison Yu's team shares their key takeaways on new model pricing, design, ADAS, and ultra-fast charging.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

As one of the most important auto shows in several years, the ongoing Shanghai auto show is attracting a lot of interest. In a research note sent to investors today, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team shares their thoughts on the event.

This year's Shanghai auto show began last week, with media days on April 18-19, professional visitor days on April 20-21, and general public access on April 22 - 27.

Yu's team shared their four key takeaways regarding new model pricing, local design, Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) capabilities, and ultra-fast charging.

"Pricing to be competitive at least through early 2024 With the price war raging on, we continue to expect OEMs to be aggressive as market share is the #1 priority," the team wrote.

Although no significant price cuts were announced at the show, automakers were very careful in disclosing prices.

did not reveal pricing details for the G6 other than the previous range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. Likewise, NIO did not detail the price of the new ES6, the team noted.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

If demand stays low, there could be another wave of price cuts, so the automakers do not want to overprice their new models. In addition, lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply, providing more cushion for pure electric vehicles, Yu's team said.

The team expects G6 pricing to trend toward the lower end of the range previously mentioned by XPeng, especially given that the X starts at just 190,000 yuan and the Model Y could see one more price cut this year.

To offset the drop in average selling price, automakers are taking steps to squeeze the structural costs of new platforms, such as XPeng's SEPA 2.0 platform, according to the team.

In terms of product design, the quality of local models is improving rapidly, and several local automakers began turning to foreign talent a few years ago to speed up the process, the team said.

BYD's design chief is Wolfang Egger, previously at Audi, and NIO's vice president of design is Kris Tomasson who came over from BMW, the team noted.

The team highlighted two models that really showcase this shift: the BYD Song L and the Hozon GT Speedster.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

"There are many other examples of bold and sleek design at the show and we expect this to be the new norm as the market shifts from ICE to EV," the team wrote.

With design and cost advantages, a natural extension is to export. During the show, Zeekr provided more details about its European strategy, the team noted.

On the ADAS side, Yu's team said subscriptions have proven difficult to monetize.

"We would have thought selling an ADAS subscription service could be easy next step. However, consumers are reluctant to adopt this business model," the team wrote.

XPeng is trying to dramatically reduce the cost of its XNGP system while improving its performance.

is currently beta testing the City NOA software with a goal of rolling it out to 100 cities nationwide by the end of 2023. The company believes its AD Max 3.0 system will be able to operate without HD maps and guarantees that all upgrades will be free for life with no subscription fees, the team noted.

NIO's NOP+ beta program is expected to end at the end of June and then begin charging subscribers RMB 380 per month.

"NIO is offering 2 years for free to 2023 ET7 buyers who pay the order deposit before June and we would expect this subscription to be increasingly used a promotional bundle to boost sales," the team wrote.

In terms of ultra-fast charging facilities, Yu's team said that automakers are just beginning to build up such capabilities, and real-world charging requires synchronization of the car, charger and grid. If any part becomes a bottleneck, charging speeds will not reach maximum performance.

NIO's ultra-fast 500 kW charger is now in service and open to other brands.

XPeng is rapidly rolling out its new S4 480 kW DC ultra-fast charging station, with a target of 500 this year.

Li Auto is focused on 800V solutions and expects its upcoming battery electric vehicle (BEV)to have 400 km of range in 10 minutes, the team noted.

Li Auto announced on April 18 that its first all-electric model will be the world's first to feature 's 4C Qilin Battery.

By 2025, Li Auto's product array will include a super flagship model, five extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and five BEVs, the company said.

Shanghai auto show: EVs take center stage, nearly 40 models equipped with LiDARs

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