As lithium prices declined in 2023, what will happen in 2024?
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Category: Lithium
BYD has held discussions with Sigma Lithium about a possible supply agreement, joint venture or acquisition, an executive at the NEV maker said, according to the Financial Times.
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Lithium carbonate prices are expected to still have room to fall, with the supply-demand balance point expected to occur by the end of 2024 or 2025, an expert said.
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The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China is falling close to RMB 150,000 per ton, about half of what it was at the end of June, as supply-demand imbalances continue.
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Nio CEO William Li told CnEVPost last month that every RMB 50,000 drop in the price of lithium carbonate would result in roughly a 1.5 percent improvement in gross margin for the company.
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The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell below RMB 200,000 per ton for the first time in four months, as industry players' expectations of supply-demand balance changes.
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CATL asked cathode material suppliers in early July to offer a 5 percent to 10 percent discount in settling lithium carbonate prices, according to local media.
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The overall supply-demand pattern in China's lithium carbonate market has not changed much, and remains oversupplied, industry sources said.
Lithium carbonate prices in China have rebounded in the past month after a rare prolonged decline earlier in the year. However, the key raw material for power batteries is still seen as oversupplied.
The overall supply and demand pattern in China's lithium carbonate market hasn't changed much and remains oversupplied, according to a report today in the local media Securities Times, citing a source at data provider Shanghai Metals Market.
Upstream lithium producers' output has declined in recent months, but imports of the raw material have increased and overall supply has not decreased, the source said.
Downstream demand has only increased slightly, leaving the overall supply pattern unchanged, the source said.
On May 23, a 32-ton lithium carbonate auction from a supplier in northwest China's Qinghai province saw only one bidder, resulting in a sale at a starting price of RMB 295,000 yuan ($41,800) per ton, according to the report.
As a comparison, Lake Lithium's May 11 auction of 600 tons of lithium carbonate saw multiple bids and a final price significantly higher than the average lithium carbonate price that day, the report said.
On November 23, 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China rose to RMB 590,000 per ton, up about 14 times from RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.
However, factors including weak demand for electric vehicles have caused lithium carbonate prices to decline all the way after heading into 2023.
Lithium carbonate prices did not see a single day of gains in China this year until April 21, falling about 65 percent since the beginning of the year.
After that, lithium carbonate prices rebounded quickly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate returning to RMB 300,000 on May 18.
Since the rebound began late last month, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen 66.67 percent in China and industrial-grade lithium carbonate has risen 111.11 percent.
For this round of rise in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, industry sources agree that it is due to factors including stockpiling by manufacturers and speculation by traders, according to the report in Securities Times.
Meanwhile, some downstream producers are in a position to restock their inventories, and their demand for inventory replenishment has also helped the price rise, the report said.
($1 = RMB 7.0566)
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The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen 66.67 percent in China and 111.11 percent for industrial-grade lithium carbonate since the rally began late last month.
Lithium carbonate -- a key raw material for electric vehicle batteries -- has seen prices rise for half a month in China.
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached RMB 300,000 ($42,740) per ton in China today, up RMB 15,000 per ton, or 5.26 percent, from yesterday, the 14th consecutive day of gains, according to Mysteel.
Industrial grade lithium carbonate price today reached RMB 285,000 per ton, up RMB 15,000 per ton, or 5.56 percent, from yesterday, the 17th consecutive day of increases.
This is a rebound in lithium carbonate prices after seeing months of declines, with the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) industry suddenly falling into weak growth early in the year.
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to RMB 590,000 per ton in China on November 23, 2022, up about 14 times from RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.
However, factors including weak demand for electric vehicles have caused lithium carbonate prices to decline all the way after heading into 2023.
Prior to April 21, lithium carbonate prices had not seen a single day of gains in China this year, falling about 65 percent since the beginning of the year.
Since the rebound began at the end of last month, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have risen 66.67 percent in China, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate has risen 111.11 percent.
The rebound in lithium carbonate prices is mainly due to tight supplies, while there has still not been a more significant recovery in demand for NEVs downstream, local media Yicai cited an unnamed industry source as saying in a May 15 report.
China's new energy passenger car retail sales in April were 527,000 units, up 85.6 percent year-on-year but 3.6 percent lower than in March, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on May 9.
In some analysts' view, despite the rebound in lithium prices this month, there is still downward pressure in the long run.
Overseas customers will not purchase lithium at prices significantly higher than the Chinese market in the long term, and profit levels for lithium smelters will eventually return to a reasonable range, CICC analyst Feng Tingshuai 's team said in a May 16 research note.
If the rebound in Chinese lithium prices is not strong enough to fully reverse the situation, lithium prices will likely continue to face some downward pressure, the team said.
The accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices is difficult to sustain, and lithium prices are expected to gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound, CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team said in an April 20 research note.
However, the team believes the downward trend in lithium prices may not end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.
($1 = RMB 7.0191)
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Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 7.61 percent in China today, and industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 13.25 percent, both the largest single-day gains of this year.
Lithium, a key raw material for batteries, is seeing accelerating price gains after a rally that began late last month.
The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was RMB 247,500 ($35,680) per ton today, up RMB 17,500 per ton, or 7.61 percent, from yesterday, according to data from Mysteel.
Industrial grade lithium carbonate averaged RMB 235,000 per ton today, up RMB 27,500 per ton, or 13.25 percent from yesterday.
This is the 10th consecutive day of increase in battery grade lithium carbonate prices and the 13th consecutive day of increase in industrial grade lithium carbonate prices, and they are both the largest single-day gains of this year, CnEVPost's monitoring shows.
As of April 21, lithium carbonate prices have not seen a single day of gains in China this year, falling about 65 percent since the start of the year.
In this round of increases that began late last month, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose 37.5 percent from RMB 180,000 per ton, while industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 74 percent.
High lithium prices are clearly not good for China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, but the continued decline in the price of the raw material also reflects weak consumer demand at the end of the spectrum.
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose to RMB 590,000 per ton in China on November 23, 2022, up about 14 times from RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.
The significant upward movement in lithium prices has resulted in EV makers facing higher battery costs, which has led to impaired profits.
However, the fall in lithium carbonate prices since the end of last year has raised many people more concerns about weak downstream EV demand and price wars.
As lithium prices rebound, some analysts are beginning to see possible signs of improvement in the EV industry.
Lithium carbonate prices have stopped falling and stabilized, reflecting gradually improving downstream demand, Guotai Junan analyst Shi Yan's team said in a research note on May 11.
On May 10, CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team said that the previous sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers had fueled a wait-and-see mood among new energy vehicle (NEV) consumers.
In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.
CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team said in an April 20 research note that the accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices was unsustainable, and lithium prices may gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories are reduced.
Due to oversupply, some companies choose to cut production, which is a normal phenomenon that may occur in the process of price reduction, the team said.
However, the team believes that the downward trend in lithium prices may not come to a complete end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.
Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.
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Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound
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