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Lithium price rally picking up steam in China

Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 7.61 percent in China today, and industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 13.25 percent, both the largest single-day gains of this year.

Lithium price rally picking up steam in China-CnEVPost

Lithium, a key raw material for batteries, is seeing accelerating price gains after a rally that began late last month.

The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was RMB 247,500 ($35,680) per ton today, up RMB 17,500 per ton, or 7.61 percent, from yesterday, according to data from Mysteel.

Industrial grade lithium carbonate averaged RMB 235,000 per ton today, up RMB 27,500 per ton, or 13.25 percent from yesterday.

This is the 10th consecutive day of increase in battery grade lithium carbonate prices and the 13th consecutive day of increase in industrial grade lithium carbonate prices, and they are both the largest single-day gains of this year, CnEVPost's monitoring shows.

As of April 21, lithium carbonate prices have not seen a single day of gains in China this year, falling about 65 percent since the start of the year.

In this round of increases that began late last month, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose 37.5 percent from RMB 180,000 per ton, while industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 74 percent.

High lithium prices are clearly not good for China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, but the continued decline in the price of the raw material also reflects weak consumer demand at the end of the spectrum.

The price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose to RMB 590,000 per ton in China on November 23, 2022, up about 14 times from RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

The significant upward movement in lithium prices has resulted in EV makers facing higher battery costs, which has led to impaired profits.

However, the fall in lithium carbonate prices since the end of last year has raised many people more concerns about weak downstream EV demand and price wars.

As lithium prices rebound, some analysts are beginning to see possible signs of improvement in the EV industry.

Lithium carbonate prices have stopped falling and stabilized, reflecting gradually improving downstream demand, Guotai Junan analyst Shi Yan's team said in a research note on May 11.

On May 10, CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team said that the previous sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers had fueled a wait-and-see mood among new energy vehicle (NEV) consumers.

In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.

CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team said in an April 20 research note that the accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices was unsustainable, and lithium prices may gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories are reduced.

Due to oversupply, some companies choose to cut production, which is a normal phenomenon that may occur in the process of price reduction, the team said.

However, the team believes that the downward trend in lithium prices may not come to a complete end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.

Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.

($1 = RMB 6.9468)

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound

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Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound

Lithium prices are expected to stop falling in the near term, but will continue their downward trend over the next two years, analysts say.

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound-CnEVPost

The epic decline in lithium carbonate prices is starting to see signs of stopping.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price in China rose RMB 2,500 ($362) per ton today to an average of RMB 137,500 per ton, the first single-day increase this year, according to data from Mysteel.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate, on the other hand, remained at RMB 180,000 per ton for the third consecutive day, according to the data.

With the rapid growth of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, prices for the key raw material for batteries have risen rapidly in the past two years.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and even a production disruption in Yichun, Jiangxi, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," at the end of February did not stop the downward trend.

Earlier this month, a local media outlet reported that half of Yichun's four major lithium producers had opted to shut down production to stem the downward price trend.

The accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices is unsustainable, with lithium prices expected to gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories decrease, said Chinese brokerage CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team in an April 20 research note.

Some companies were choosing to cut production due to oversupply, which is a normal phenomenon that would occur during price reductions, the team said.

However, the team believes the downward trend in lithium prices may not end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.

Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.

"We expect global lithium resource supply to grow from 760,000 tons to 1,973,000 tons in 2022-2025, with a CAGR of 37 percent," the team wrote.

Separately, CITIC Securities analyst Bai Junfei's team said in an April 17 research note that current lithium prices have fallen near key cost support levels and could stop falling if downstream demand picks up.

Downstream producers have material inventories that are all at extremely low levels, and overseas lithium prices are at a significant premium to Chinese lithium prices, which are also supportive factors, according to the team.

Notably, CITIC Securities shares CICC's view that lithium prices still have room to fall, as the oversupply will continue.

Global new lithium supply will reach 350,000 tons in 2023, and show a trend of quarterly increase, according to CITIC Securities.

In 2023-2025, total global lithium supply will grow to 1.2 million tons, 1.73 million tons and 2.32 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44 percent, 41 percent and 34 percent, corresponding to a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, 397,000 tons and 438,000 tons, respectively, according to the team.

As the oversupply expands, lithium prices will still have downward pressure in 2024 and 2025, and there is a risk of further price declines after a temporary stop, the team said.

(1 $= RMB 6.9023)

Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs

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Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound

Lithium prices are expected to stop falling in the near term, but will continue their downward trend over the next two years, analysts say.

Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound-CnEVPost

The epic decline in lithium carbonate prices is starting to see signs of stopping.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price in China rose RMB 2,500 ($362) per ton today to an average of RMB 137,500 per ton, the first single-day increase this year, according to data from Mysteel.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate, on the other hand, remained at RMB 180,000 per ton for the third consecutive day, according to the data.

With the rapid growth of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, prices for the key raw material for batteries have risen rapidly in the past two years.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and even a production disruption in Yichun, Jiangxi, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," at the end of February did not stop the downward trend.

Earlier this month, a local media outlet reported that half of Yichun's four major lithium producers had opted to shut down production to stem the downward price trend.

The accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices is unsustainable, with lithium prices expected to gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories decrease, said Chinese brokerage CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team in an April 20 research note.

Some companies were choosing to cut production due to oversupply, which is a normal phenomenon that would occur during price reductions, the team said.

However, the team believes the downward trend in lithium prices may not end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.

Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.

"We expect global lithium resource supply to grow from 760,000 tons to 1,973,000 tons in 2022-2025, with a CAGR of 37 percent," the team wrote.

Separately, CITIC Securities analyst Bai Junfei's team said in an April 17 research note that current lithium prices have fallen near key cost support levels and could stop falling if downstream demand picks up.

Downstream producers have material inventories that are all at extremely low levels, and overseas lithium prices are at a significant premium to Chinese lithium prices, which are also supportive factors, according to the team.

Notably, CITIC Securities shares CICC's view that lithium prices still have room to fall, as the oversupply will continue.

Global new lithium supply will reach 350,000 tons in 2023, and show a trend of quarterly increase, according to CITIC Securities.

In 2023-2025, total global lithium supply will grow to 1.2 million tons, 1.73 million tons and 2.32 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44 percent, 41 percent and 34 percent, corresponding to a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, 397,000 tons and 438,000 tons, respectively, according to the team.

As the oversupply expands, lithium prices will still have downward pressure in 2024 and 2025, and there is a risk of further price declines after a temporary stop, the team said.

(1 $= RMB 6.9023)

Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs

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Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline

Half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," have opted to shut down production, according to local media.

Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline-CnEVPost

Some producers in a Chinese lithium-producing hub are shutting down production as lithium prices have seen a rare streak of several months of declines this year.

With lithium carbonate prices falling by about RMB 10,000 ($1,450) per ton per day in recent days, half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province in eastern China, have opted to shut down production, local media The Paper said today, citing a source from a major producer.

Yichun, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," is one of the world's largest sources of lithium. Notably, the city's lithium production was disrupted in late February by regulators investigating noncompliance.

However, these disruptions did not stop lithium carbonate prices from falling, even though many expected so.

Lithium producers in Yichun, who were forced to shut down production some time ago because of government environmental actions, are now voluntarily choosing to do so in the face of the current market, The Paper cited the source as saying.

There are four main companies with mature production lines and lithium mica mines in Yichun, namely Yongxing New Energy, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor, Feiyu New Energy and Nanshi Lithium, which have a total annual capacity of 105,000 tons, according to the report, which does not mention which two lithium producers have stopped production.

Zhicun Lithium, which was founded in 2021 and also has lithium capacity in Yichun, currently has nearly half of its lithium carbonate production line shut down, the report said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

In 2021, Yichun produced 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate, more than a quarter of China's total lithium carbonate production.

As of July 2022, Yichun's lithium carbonate capacity of 180,000 tons represents 40 percent of China's entire lithium carbonate capacity of 450,000 tons, the report noted.

The RMB 250,000 per ton price of lithium carbonate is seen as break-even point for much of Yichun's production of lithium extracted from mica, according to the report.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and have not seen a single day of gains this year.

Yesterday, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China fell RMB 8,500 per ton to an average price of RMB 224,000 per ton, according to Mysteel.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell RMB 6,000 per ton yesterday to an average price of RMB 189,000 per ton.

Today is Tomb Sweeping Day in China and lithium carbonate quotes are not available.

On February 26, Yicai reported that lithium ore processing companies in Yichun have shut down production industry-wide to rectify mining violations.

Yichun produces between 10,000 and 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate each month, and a one-month shutdown would affect about 10 percent of global supply, the report said, citing a lithium battery industry analyst who declined to be named.

That was seen at the time as something that would stop the price of lithium carbonate -- then at about 400,000 yuan per ton -- from falling, but that expectation did not materialize.

The intensity of lithium carbonate's decline did decrease in early March, with daily declines of less than 1 percent from March 3 to March 8, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

After that, lithium carbonate continued to fall sharply, with the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate falling 5.10 percent and 4.88 percent, respectively, on April 3, both the largest single-day declines of the year.

In 2022, the supply and demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were actually in balance, and there was a lot of hype behind the price surges, said Wang Yu, chairman of battery maker Farasis Energy, in an interview during the China EV 100 Forum held on April 2.

Based on this situation this year, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fall rapidly, Wang said.

Lithium carbonate prices have already fallen to RMB 250,000 per ton and are expected to fall further, with a drop to below RMB 100,000 very likely, he said.

($1 = RMB 6.8798)

Panic selling of lithium carbonate just won't stop

The post Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline appeared first on CnEVPost.

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Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline

Half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," have opted to shut down production, according to local media.

Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline-CnEVPost

Some producers in a Chinese lithium-producing hub are shutting down production as lithium prices have seen a rare streak of several months of declines this year.

With lithium carbonate prices falling by about RMB 10,000 ($1,450) per ton per day in recent days, half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province in eastern China, have opted to shut down production, local media The Paper said today, citing a source from a major producer.

Yichun, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," is one of the world's largest sources of lithium. Notably, the city's lithium production was disrupted in late February by regulators investigating noncompliance.

However, these disruptions did not stop lithium carbonate prices from falling, even though many expected so.

Lithium producers in Yichun, who were forced to shut down production some time ago because of government environmental actions, are now voluntarily choosing to do so in the face of the current market, The Paper cited the source as saying.

There are four main companies with mature production lines and lithium mica mines in Yichun, namely Yongxing New Energy, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor, Feiyu New Energy and Nanshi Lithium, which have a total annual capacity of 105,000 tons, according to the report, which does not mention which two lithium producers have stopped production.

Zhicun Lithium, which was founded in 2021 and also has lithium capacity in Yichun, currently has nearly half of its lithium carbonate production line shut down, the report said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

In 2021, Yichun produced 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate, more than a quarter of China's total lithium carbonate production.

As of July 2022, Yichun's lithium carbonate capacity of 180,000 tons represents 40 percent of China's entire lithium carbonate capacity of 450,000 tons, the report noted.

The RMB 250,000 per ton price of lithium carbonate is seen as break-even point for much of Yichun's production of lithium extracted from mica, according to the report.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and have not seen a single day of gains this year.

Yesterday, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China fell RMB 8,500 per ton to an average price of RMB 224,000 per ton, according to Mysteel.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell RMB 6,000 per ton yesterday to an average price of RMB 189,000 per ton.

Today is Tomb Sweeping Day in China and lithium carbonate quotes are not available.

On February 26, Yicai reported that lithium ore processing companies in Yichun have shut down production industry-wide to rectify mining violations.

Yichun produces between 10,000 and 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate each month, and a one-month shutdown would affect about 10 percent of global supply, the report said, citing a lithium battery industry analyst who declined to be named.

That was seen at the time as something that would stop the price of lithium carbonate -- then at about 400,000 yuan per ton -- from falling, but that expectation did not materialize.

The intensity of lithium carbonate's decline did decrease in early March, with daily declines of less than 1 percent from March 3 to March 8, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

After that, lithium carbonate continued to fall sharply, with the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate falling 5.10 percent and 4.88 percent, respectively, on April 3, both the largest single-day declines of the year.

In 2022, the supply and demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were actually in balance, and there was a lot of hype behind the price surges, said Wang Yu, chairman of battery maker Farasis Energy, in an interview during the China EV 100 Forum held on April 2.

Based on this situation this year, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fall rapidly, Wang said.

Lithium carbonate prices have already fallen to RMB 250,000 per ton and are expected to fall further, with a drop to below RMB 100,000 very likely, he said.

($1 = RMB 6.8798)

Panic selling of lithium carbonate just won't stop

The post Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline appeared first on CnEVPost.

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Categories
China Electric eMobility eV Lithium Lithium Carbonate Lithium Prices Raw Materials

Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline

Half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," have opted to shut down production, according to local media.

Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline-CnEVPost

Some producers in a Chinese lithium-producing hub are shutting down production as lithium prices have seen a rare streak of several months of declines this year.

With lithium carbonate prices falling by about RMB 10,000 ($1,450) per ton per day in recent days, half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province in eastern China, have opted to shut down production, local media The Paper said today, citing a source from a major producer.

Yichun, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," is one of the world's largest sources of lithium. Notably, the city's lithium production was disrupted in late February by regulators investigating noncompliance.

However, these disruptions did not stop lithium carbonate prices from falling, even though many expected so.

Lithium producers in Yichun, who were forced to shut down production some time ago because of government environmental actions, are now voluntarily choosing to do so in the face of the current market, The Paper cited the source as saying.

There are four main companies with mature production lines and lithium mica mines in Yichun, namely Yongxing New Energy, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor, Feiyu New Energy and Nanshi Lithium, which have a total annual capacity of 105,000 tons, according to the report, which does not mention which two lithium producers have stopped production.

Zhicun Lithium, which was founded in 2021 and also has lithium capacity in Yichun, currently has nearly half of its lithium carbonate production line shut down, the report said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

In 2021, Yichun produced 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate, more than a quarter of China's total lithium carbonate production.

As of July 2022, Yichun's lithium carbonate capacity of 180,000 tons represents 40 percent of China's entire lithium carbonate capacity of 450,000 tons, the report noted.

The RMB 250,000 per ton price of lithium carbonate is seen as break-even point for much of Yichun's production of lithium extracted from mica, according to the report.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and have not seen a single day of gains this year.

Yesterday, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China fell RMB 8,500 per ton to an average price of RMB 224,000 per ton, according to Mysteel.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell RMB 6,000 per ton yesterday to an average price of RMB 189,000 per ton.

Today is Tomb Sweeping Day in China and lithium carbonate quotes are not available.

On February 26, Yicai reported that lithium ore processing companies in Yichun have shut down production industry-wide to rectify mining violations.

Yichun produces between 10,000 and 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate each month, and a one-month shutdown would affect about 10 percent of global supply, the report said, citing a lithium battery industry analyst who declined to be named.

That was seen at the time as something that would stop the price of lithium carbonate -- then at about 400,000 yuan per ton -- from falling, but that expectation did not materialize.

The intensity of lithium carbonate's decline did decrease in early March, with daily declines of less than 1 percent from March 3 to March 8, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

After that, lithium carbonate continued to fall sharply, with the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate falling 5.10 percent and 4.88 percent, respectively, on April 3, both the largest single-day declines of the year.

In 2022, the supply and demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were actually in balance, and there was a lot of hype behind the price surges, said Wang Yu, chairman of battery maker Farasis Energy, in an interview during the China EV 100 Forum held on April 2.

Based on this situation this year, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fall rapidly, Wang said.

Lithium carbonate prices have already fallen to RMB 250,000 per ton and are expected to fall further, with a drop to below RMB 100,000 very likely, he said.

($1 = RMB 6.8798)

Panic selling of lithium carbonate just won't stop

The post Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline appeared first on CnEVPost.

For more articles, please visit CnEVPost.

Categories
China Electric eMobility eV Lithium Lithium Carbonate Lithium Prices Raw Materials

Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline

Half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," have opted to shut down production, according to local media.

Some Chinese lithium producers stop production to stem continued price decline-CnEVPost

Some producers in a Chinese lithium-producing hub are shutting down production as lithium prices have seen a rare streak of several months of declines this year.

With lithium carbonate prices falling by about RMB 10,000 ($1,450) per ton per day in recent days, half of the four major lithium producers in Yichun, Jiangxi province in eastern China, have opted to shut down production, local media The Paper said today, citing a source from a major producer.

Yichun, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," is one of the world's largest sources of lithium. Notably, the city's lithium production was disrupted in late February by regulators investigating noncompliance.

However, these disruptions did not stop lithium carbonate prices from falling, even though many expected so.

Lithium producers in Yichun, who were forced to shut down production some time ago because of government environmental actions, are now voluntarily choosing to do so in the face of the current market, The Paper cited the source as saying.

There are four main companies with mature production lines and lithium mica mines in Yichun, namely Yongxing New Energy, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor, Feiyu New Energy and Nanshi Lithium, which have a total annual capacity of 105,000 tons, according to the report, which does not mention which two lithium producers have stopped production.

Zhicun Lithium, which was founded in 2021 and also has lithium capacity in Yichun, currently has nearly half of its lithium carbonate production line shut down, the report said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

In 2021, Yichun produced 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate, more than a quarter of China's total lithium carbonate production.

As of July 2022, Yichun's lithium carbonate capacity of 180,000 tons represents 40 percent of China's entire lithium carbonate capacity of 450,000 tons, the report noted.

The RMB 250,000 per ton price of lithium carbonate is seen as break-even point for much of Yichun's production of lithium extracted from mica, according to the report.

At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and have not seen a single day of gains this year.

Yesterday, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China fell RMB 8,500 per ton to an average price of RMB 224,000 per ton, according to Mysteel.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell RMB 6,000 per ton yesterday to an average price of RMB 189,000 per ton.

Today is Tomb Sweeping Day in China and lithium carbonate quotes are not available.

On February 26, Yicai reported that lithium ore processing companies in Yichun have shut down production industry-wide to rectify mining violations.

Yichun produces between 10,000 and 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate each month, and a one-month shutdown would affect about 10 percent of global supply, the report said, citing a lithium battery industry analyst who declined to be named.

That was seen at the time as something that would stop the price of lithium carbonate -- then at about 400,000 yuan per ton -- from falling, but that expectation did not materialize.

The intensity of lithium carbonate's decline did decrease in early March, with daily declines of less than 1 percent from March 3 to March 8, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

After that, lithium carbonate continued to fall sharply, with the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate falling 5.10 percent and 4.88 percent, respectively, on April 3, both the largest single-day declines of the year.

In 2022, the supply and demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were actually in balance, and there was a lot of hype behind the price surges, said Wang Yu, chairman of battery maker Farasis Energy, in an interview during the China EV 100 Forum held on April 2.

Based on this situation this year, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fall rapidly, Wang said.

Lithium carbonate prices have already fallen to RMB 250,000 per ton and are expected to fall further, with a drop to below RMB 100,000 very likely, he said.

($1 = RMB 6.8798)

Panic selling of lithium carbonate just won't stop

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Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs

For an EV with a 70-kWh pack, the cost of the battery is now RMB 12,300 - RMB 14,500 lower than when lithium carbonate prices were at their previous high, analysts say.

Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs-CnEVPost

Falling lithium carbonate prices are known to benefit the profitability of electric vehicle (EV) makers. So how will this price change affect the cost of EVs? A new research note provides a good analysis.

An EV powered by a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery typically uses 30-40 kilograms of lithium carbonate, while an EV with a ternary lithium battery consumes 50-70 kilograms of the material, said Haitong International Securities analyst Yang Bin's team in a research note today.

When the price of lithium carbonate drops by RMB 100,000 ($14,540) per ton, the cost of ternary lithium batteries and LFP batteries will see marginal decreases of RMB 60 to RMB 70 per kWh, respectively, the team's calculations show.

In this case, the battery cost would be RMB 4,200 to RMB 4,900 lower for an all-electric vehicle with a 70-kWh battery capacity.

This means that the current battery cost of an all-electric vehicle with a 70-kWh battery capacity is already RMB 12,300 - RMB 14,500 lower than when lithium carbonate prices were at their previous high, the team said.

As a backdrop, lithium carbonate prices have never seen a single day of gains in China this year and continue to fall by several thousand RMB today, according to data from Mysteel.

The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate per ton in China fell by RMB 7,500 to RMB 256,500 today, down about 57 percent from RMB 590,000,000 last November. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate per ton also fell by RMB 7,500 to RMB 210,000 today.

Falling battery costs will drive down the overall cost of EVs, which will allow automakers to see their gross margins repair, according to Haitong's research note.

However, the team also noted that in the long run, automakers need to achieve technology upgrades, reduce costs and improve competitiveness in order to capture sufficient market share and profitability, considering EV penetration is already high in China.

With lower lithium carbonate prices, EV makers will have more room for pricing as they gain greater profit margins, the team said, adding that this is expected to allow them to gain greater market share by cutting prices.

Although the price of lithium carbonate has fallen by more than half from its high a few months ago, the team believes there is still room to fall.

In 2022, China's lithium resource supply was 727,000 tons and demand was 796,000 tons, the team said.

In 2023, China's lithium resource supply is expected to reach 1.088 million tons and demand is expected to be 1.034 million tons, according to the team.

With the supply of lithium resources outstripping demand, there is still room for lithium carbonate prices to fall, with the price of battery grade lithium carbonate expected to fall to around RMB 200,000 per ton by the end of 2023, the team said.

($1 = RMB 6.8772)

Panic selling of lithium carbonate just won't stop

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Lithium prices see biggest drop this year in China as decline accelerates

's management previously said they expect lithium carbonate prices to fall back to RMB 200,000 per ton this year, boosting gross margins.

The price of lithium, a key raw material for batteries, is accelerating its decline.

The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China today was down RMB 12,500 per ton ($1,814 per ton) from last Friday, with the latest average price quoted at RMB 312,500 per ton, according to My Steel.

That latest average price is down 3.85 percent from Friday, the biggest drop of the year, data monitored by CnEVPost show.

On Friday, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China fell RMB 8,000, or 2.4 percent, the previous biggest drop of the year.

Industrial-grade lithium carbonate also fell by RMB 12,500 per ton today, with the average price quoted at RMB 272,500 per ton. Its 4.39 percent drop was also the highest of the year.

The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell RMB 7,000 per ton to RMB 295,000 per ton on March 16, the first time it has fallen below RMB 300,000 per ton in this down cycle.

The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is now barely above RMB 300,000 and is at risk of falling below that mark in the next day or two.

In the two years prior to last November, lithium carbonate prices were soaring alongside the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry.

On November 23, 2022, the battery-grade lithium carbonate price rose to RMB 590,000 per ton in China, up about 14 times from RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.

Since then, however, lithium prices have continued to fall, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices falling below RMB 400,000 on February 22 and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices falling below that mark on February 28.

In late February, a local media report that lithium supplies could be disrupted by the production halt in a mining hub in China did not stop lithium carbonate prices from continuing to fall.

As of today, lithium carbonate prices are down about 47 percent from last November's highs and are down about 40 percent so far this year.

The drop in lithium carbonate prices is expected to ease the cost pressures faced by electric vehicle manufacturers.

NIO had previously mentioned that a drop in lithium carbonate price of RMB 100,000 per ton would increase its gross margin by 2 percentage points.

NIO's management said in a conference call with analysts after the March 1 earnings announcement that they expect lithium carbonate prices to fall to RMB 200,000 per ton this year, boosting gross margins.

($1 = RMB 6.8896)

Full text: NIO Q4 earnings call transcript

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CATL to reach new price agreement with automakers as soon as end of Mar, report says

The price of lithium, a raw material for batteries, has accelerated its decline, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate falling RMB 7,500 per ton to RMB 302,500 per ton today.

New price agreements between Chinese power battery giant and some local automakers are expected to be reached this month, at a time when battery raw material prices continue to fall.

CATL's lithium rebate policy is progressing steadily, and it is now at the practical stage of signing agreements with some car companies, local media Cailian said today, citing sources close to the battery maker.

These agreements are expected to be reached by the end of this month at the earliest, the source said.

CATL's plan was first reported on February 17 by local media outlet 36kr, which said it is not aimed at all customers, but rather at several strategic customers, including (NYSE: NIO), (NASDAQ: LI), and .

The core terms of the partnership include that CATL will settle a portion of the price of power battery supply with car companies at a rate of RMB 200,000 ($28,970) per ton of lithium carbonate for the next three years.

At the same time, car companies signing the partnership will be required to commit about 80 percent of their battery purchases to CATL, according to the report.

CATL management first acknowledged the move during the company's earnings call on March 9.

CATL's lithium sharing plan is not for the purpose of lowering prices, but rather the company already has some mineral resources and does not want to reap windfall profits, its management said.

CATL wants to be able to share with long-term strategic customers and is moving forward with communications to that end, the company said.

Prior to that, Li Auto and NIO both said that they had ongoing discussions with CATL when asked about the topic in their respective earnings calls.

CATL's move comes as lithium carbonate has been falling for months.

Today's quotes for industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate in China were both down RMB 7,500 per ton, with the latest average prices at RMB302,500 per ton and RMB 340,000 per ton, respectively, according to My Steel.

($1 = RMB 6.9040)

CATL confirms it's negotiating new prices with EV makers

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